Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei and ASX 200 both up 0.05 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.15 %, Hang Seng rose 0.25 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1287 (-0.50 %), Silver at $17.54 (-0.45 %), WTI Oil at $45.97 (+0.55 %), Brent Oil at $48.38 (+0.67 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.18, UK 10-year yield at 1.00, German 10-year yield at 0.26
News & Data
- China Trade Balance $40.81bln vs $46.32bln expected
- China Imports 14.8 % vs 8.5 % expected
- China Exports 8.7 % vs 7.0 % expected
- Japan GDP q/q 0.3 % vs 0.6 % expected
- Japan GDP y/y 1.0 % vs 2.4 % expected
- Japan Current Account JPY1.95trln vs JPY1.70trln expected
- Australia Trade Balance A$0.55bln vs $1.95bln expected
- Australia Exports -8.0 % vs 2.0 % previous
- Australia Imports -1.0 % vs 5.0 % previous
Markets Update:
Markets remained quiet in Asia, ahead of three major risk events – the ECB meeting, the Comey testimony and the UK elections.
Comey already released his written testimony yesterday, and the reaction in the market was neutral. Traders did not identify anything that could really hurt US President Trump. Nevertheless, his testimony in front of the committee this afternoon will be closely watched.
The Euro did not move much since yesterday. Traders are waiting for the ECB rate decision. While no changes in rates or QE are expected, the central bank is likely to change their economic outlook. However, low inflation will prevent the ECB from abandoning their loose monetary policy soon. The key levels in EUR/USD are 1.12, 1.1108, 1.1070 and to the topside 1.13 & 1.1420.
Volatility will be high today in the GBP pairs. The market is expecting that Theresa May’s party will win the election, which is why GBP/USD is approaching 1.30. However, if it will be a tight race as the polls suggest, there could be volatile moves prior to the official results. Should May win, GBP is likely to appreciate a bit further. The worst scenario would be a “hung parliament”. The uncertainty would likely bring both the Pound and UK stock markets under pressure.
Upcoming Events:
- 06:45 BST – Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 BST – German Industrial Production
- 07:15 BST – Swiss CPI
- 12:45 BST – ECB Rate Decision
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
