- Headline employment dipped 7k in March – a relatively small change given normal volatility in the monthly measure and retracing little of the 290k gain over the prior 6 months.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%, still right around multi-decade lows.
- Wage growth ticked up slightly and hours worked rebounded as a jump in the number of hours lost due to weather in February reversed.
A dip in headline employment is not surprising given what looked like overstated earlier gains – employment was up 290k over the prior 6 months. The 7k drop is small given typical confidence bands around the headline job growth numbers and doesn’t do much to change recent trends. The unemployment rate held close to multi-decade lows at 5.8% and wage growth ticked modestly higher, although at 2.4% year-over-year is still lower than one would ordinarily expect given what still look ostensibly like quite tight labour markets. And hours worked rebounded 1.0% after falling 0.7% in February as the number of hours of work lost to bad weather fell after jumping higher the earlier month. The data should do little to change the broader narrative that labour markets in Canada still look pretty solid. But wage growth is still slower than it should be. There is little evidence that underlying inflation trends are at any risk of jumping higher. And higher interest rates alongside regulatory changes have already contributed to significantly slower household debt growth and housing markets. That leaves the Bank of Canada with plenty of flexibility to stay on the sidelines in terms of any interest rate hikes for now.
