Market movers ahead
- In the US, the jobs report is the most important release next week. We think it is important to keep an eye on whether employment growth starts to decelerate
- In the euro area, we expect March core inflation stayed at 1.0% as the Easter effect will exert downward pressure on service price inflation.
- Concerning Brexit, we are also likely heading for a long extension if the EU27 allow it. In terms of UK economic data releases, we expect weaker PMIs for March.
- The key releases in China next week will be the PMIs. We believe that Q1 will mark the bottom for Chinese activity.
Weekly wrap-up
- The ECB is weighing measures to mitigate the negative side effects of negative rates. The considerations suggest that the ECB is preparing for a potentially long period of negative rates.
- The main headache on Brexit is that there is no majority for any of the different solutions and the pressure is still not high enough for Parliament to be forced to make a decision.
- US and German 10-year yields had another week of sharp declines. The economic slowdown, falling inflation and soft central banks reinforce the search for yield.
- Our new forecast for the Nordics, Nordic Outlook , 28 March, has been released. We expect a sharp slowdown in Sweden, but strong growth in Norway. Denmark in particular has weathered the global slowdown well, but the outlook for both Denmark and Finland remains dependent on the rest of Europe.
