Market Movers ahead
- US-China trade talks will continue next week when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer travel to Beijing early next week. While Trump has hinted that a deal before 1 March is unlikely, we are not surprised and stick to our view that we will get a deal eventually.
- Q4 GDP data for Japan, Germany and the UK is due out. We think Germany avoided slipping into a technical recession and in the UK, the growth picture has become weaker due to Brexit uncertainties and slower global growth.
- In the euro area, look out for new car registrations in January, as the car sector has been one of the weak spots in the euro area economy. A rebound in car production/sales is one of the ingredients for a rebound in euro area growth.
- In the UK, the MPs will have an indicative vote on how to proceed with Brexit on Thursday.
- We may be heading for a new government shutdown from Friday if President Trump and Congress do not agree on a budget.
Weekly wrap-up
- With less than two months to go, the UK remains divided over Brexit.
- The European Commission has slashed its 2019 growth forecast for Europe. On a more positive note, signs of a German car sector recovery are getting more abundant.
- The Bank of England remained on hold but still signalled a tightening bias despite Brexit uncertainties.
- This week, equity markets remained supported by signs of a resilient US economy, a softer Fed message and a decent earnings season.
