Market movers ahead
- In the US , we expect the Federal Reserve to raise the target range by 25bp to 2.25-2.50%, but the focus will be on what policy path the Fed signals going forward.
- In Sweden , we see a 70% chance of the Riksbank hiking at the December policy meeting.
- In the UK , the focus remains on Brexit after a hectic week. We do not expect major changes to the policy signals from the Bank of England.
- In the euro area , final November HICP and German Ifo numbers are the key releases.
- The main focus in China will remain on the trade talks with the US.
- We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its ‘QQE with yields curve control’ policy unchanged, while November inflation figures will likely move south again.
Weekly wrap-up
- Markets continue to be choppy as politics dominates the news flows.
- Another hectic week in Brexit land, where PM Theresa May successfully fended off a no-confidence vote.
- The Italian government proposed cutting its 2019 deficit to 2.04% (from 2.4%) in a concession to EU concerns, causing a rally in Italian government bonds.
- The ECB concludes its QE programme, but sounds a dovish tone on the near-term growth and inflation outlook.
