Fundamental Analysis

Trump Becomes Gold's Best Friend


Gold swiftly regained its safe haven lustre on Wednesday after wave upon wave of uncertainty swirling around Donald Trump weathered risk sentiment. Concerns have skyrocketed over the current political turmoil in the United States obstructing Trump's efforts to implement his pro-growth policies, which simply punished the US Dollar. With expectations of an interest rate increase in June by the Federal Reserve slowly diminishing amid the soft economic data, Gold should find itself supported moving forward. Although uncertainty remains Gold's best friend, this spot could be temporarily replaced by Trump as his administration comes under increasing pressure. From a technical standpoint, Gold has staged a remarkable rebound on the daily charts and a break above $1260 should open a path towards $1275.

Is OPEC losing its grip?

Oil prices descended back into the abyss on Thursday as markets remained saturated despite OPEC's valiant efforts to cut production and support prices. Although US Crude oil inventories fell for a sixth-straight week, the decline was less than expected, which simply added to oversupply woes. Although investors previously displayed some optimism over Russia and Saudi Arabia agreeing that supply cuts should be extended until March 2018, this seems to have worn off. The OPEC vs US Shale saga feels like a fierce battle of attrition with the victor taking the spoils. While most remain optimistic over OPEC extending the production deal at the upcoming meeting on May 25, it becomes a question of how US Shale reacts and if pumping intensifies.

WTI Crude is under selling pressure on the daily charts. Repeated weakness and a daily close below $48 should encourage a depreciation towards $46.50.

Dollar pressured ahead of Unemployment Claims

The Greenback has received a thorough pummelling this week with prices sinking to levels not seen since November 2016 as the Trump uncertainty intensifies. Bears have exploited the fading optimism over the implementation of Trump's pro-growth policies by initiating repeated rounds of selling on the Greenback. While investors may direct their attention towards the unemployment report this afternoon, the Trump developments remain a dominant theme. If US unemployment claims disappoint and fall below expectations, the Dollar should be at risk of depreciating even lower.

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