Asia suffers from trade war
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit closed with no joint communiqué for the first time in its 29 years of existent. Discussions during the summit between US Vice President Mike Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping were limited: it’s hoped that Xi’s end-of-the-month meeting with President Donald Trump will be more fruitful. Asian shares managed to close in positive territory. Tokyo’s Topix index rose by +0.51%, supported by financial and industrial stocks, while Hong Kong Hang Seng increased by 0.72% due to rising demand for tech and financial stocks. China mainland CSI 300 also gained +1.13%, making it the largest winner in China.
We expect trade to remain in focus as the Xi-Trump meeting nears. Tariffs of 25% on USD 250 billion of Chinese imports to the US might arrive, if no clear progress is made. Further levies on USD 267 billion of Chinese goods could even come into play. The fixing for USD/CNY at 6.9245 remains largely below the current rate of 6.9430.
European Commission versus Italy
Eurozone equities remain in green, despite continued conflict over Italy’s budget. The BTP-Bund 10-year spread has remained at 3.05-3.15% since last Wednesday, suggesting that investors’ fear over Italian fiscal policy risk is stabilizing. The European Commission will be taking its final decision on Italy’s budget on 21 November. That might prompt a drastic change, if the Commission decides to impose sanctions (0.20% of GDP deposit, plus a freeze on billions of Euros in EU funds). EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1420 and is expecting to bounce slightly along to 1.1445 short-term.
