Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei gained 2.40 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.90 %, Hang Seng rose 0.30 %, ASX 200 up 0.50 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1230 (+0.30 %), Silver at $16.47 (+1.20 %), WTI Oil at $46.80 (+1.20 %), Brent Oil at $49.75 (+1.30 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.36, UK 10-year yield at 1.12, German 10-year yield at 0.42
News & Data
- China Trade Balance (USD) Apr: 38.05B Est. (35.20B), Prior (23.92B)
- China Exports (YoY) Apr: 14.3% Est. (16.80%), Prior (22.30%)
- China Imports (YoY) Apr: 18.6% Est. (29.30%), Prior (26.30%)
- Australia NAB Business Confidence Apr:13, Prior (6)
- Australia NAB Business Conditions Apr: 14, (Prior 14, revised 12)
- Australia Building Approvals (MoM) Mar: -13.4%, Est. (-4.00%), Prior (8.3%)
- Australia Building Approvals (YoY) Mar: -19.9%, Est. (-10%), Prior (-4.90%)
- PBoC Fixes USDCNY Reference Rate At 6.8947 (prev fix: 6.8884)
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 2K vs 21K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 19K
- GBP short 81K vs 91K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 10K
- JPY short 30K vs 27K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
- CHF short 18K vs 17K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- CAD short 48K vs 43K short. Shorts increased by 5K
- AUD long 43K vs 43K long. Unchanged
- NZD short 12K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
Markets Update:
Markets reacted positively to the outcome of the French election. While it was already expected that the centrist candidate Macron will win, stock markets in Asia extended gains. European equities are likely to open higher as well, and a gain of at least 1 % seems likely in the German DAX and French CAC index.
The Euro declined overnight, after starting the trading day above 1.10. The Macron win was already priced in, which is why the currency run out of momentum. EUR/USD fell back to 1.0955. Nevertheless, the technical outlook remains positive and the pair should find strong support at 1.09 and 1.0870.
The safe havens JPY and CHF fell in Asia. Demand for precious metals is likely to remain weak in the short-term too, unless a new risk-off theme emerges in the market. Key resistance in Gold is seen at $1235.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 BST – German Factory Orders
- 09:30 BST – UK Halifax House Price Index
- 13:35 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, May 9th
- 02:30 BST – Australian Retail Sales
- 06:45 BST – Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 BST – German Trade Balance
- 14:00 BST – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
- 15:00 BST – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 18:00 BST – FOMC Member Rosengren speaks
- 21:15 BST – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
Wednesday, May 10th
- 02:30 BST – Chinese CPI
- 02:30 BST – Chinese PPI
- 07:45 BST – French Trade Balance
- 13:00 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 22:00 BST – RBNZ Rate Decision
- 22:00 BST – RBNZ Statement
- 23:00 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
Thursday, May 11th
- 00:50 BST – Japanese Current Account
- 07:00 BST – German WPI
- 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
- 08:30 BST – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
- 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Trade Balance
- 12:00 BST – Bank of England Rate Decision
- 12:00 BST – Bank of England Meeting Minutes
- 12:00 BST – Bank of England Inflation Report
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 BST – US PPI
Friday, May 12th
- 07:00 BST – German GDP
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production
- 13:30 BST – US Retail Sales
- 13:30 BST – US CPI
- 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
