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Weekly Focus: Crucial Week for European Politics

Sep 28 18, 14:41 GMT

Market Movers ahead

In the US, non-farm payrolls are likely to show healthy gains along with another uptick in wage growth.
In Europe, the Italian budget projections will continue to be a theme for financial markets as well as the reaction from the EU commission and rating agencies.
In the UK, the Conservative Party Conference beginning on Sunday and lasting until Wednesday will be critical for the outlook of Brexit negotiations with the EU.
In China, there are downside risks to the PMI number for September in light of the trade war with the US, while Japan may see a small rebound in business confidence.
In Sweden, government formation talks will be watched along with the PMI survey, which should post a modest rebound.

Global macro and market themes

Market participants are not waiting for the first ECB hike to actually arrive before reacting.
The next big move in EUR/USD is up when the first ECB hike draws closer. We forecast 1.25 in 12M.
The US economy is in great shape despite trade war concerns supporting the case for further Fed rate hikes and higher US Treasury yields.

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