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Weekly Focus: Global Business Cycle Back in Focus

May 05 17, 14:15 GMT

Market movers ahead

We expect a rebound in US CPI inflation after the sharp fall in the March inflation print.
German GDP growth for Q1 is likely to mirror the relatively strong euro area growth.
We expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged but believe focus will be on its policy stance on Thursday.
We expect Chinese inflation pressure to continue to be muted.
In Scandinavia, focus is set to be on inflation prints and, for Sweden, the minutes of the last Riksbank meeting.

Global macro and market themes

Political risks are fading in Europe with Emmanuel Macron likely to become the next president of France.
Economic momentum looks strong in the euro area.
However, PMI indicators are pointing to a softening of the economic cycles in the US and China.
Chinese financial markets are seeing increasing stress and commodity prices have also come under pressure.
The impact on equity prices of a softer global business cycle is likely to be offset by strong earnings growth.

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