Market movers today
It is a relatively light day on the data front. Financial markets will focus on political events , such as the Brexit negotiations, where EU negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday flagged optimism about a deal in six to eight weeks’ time, and the possible announcement by US President Trump of new tariffs on Chinese imports.
In the euro area, German ZEW Economic Sentiment data is due for September. Our main focus will be on economic expectations, which saw a rebound in July and it will be interesting to see whether this trend has continued, especially in light of the decreasing risk of a US-EU trade war.
The UK jobs report is due out today. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) was unchanged at 4.0%. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (3M average) surprised on the upside last time, so we think the monthly increase will decline but it should still be sufficient to lift the annual growth rate to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% y/y.
In Norway, Norges Bank’s regional network survey (10.00 CEST) is the final piece in the puzzle before the rate setting meeting on 20 September.
Selected market news
In Russia, the Eastern Economic Forum starts today and China’s Xi Jinping will meet with Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok. The Chinese and Russian presidents are likely to discuss North Korea, among other issues. Yesterday, Putin met with Japan’s Shinzo Abe. Abe is due to meet the leaders of Mongolia and South Korea today.
Argentina’s central bank will decide on its key rate. It is highly likely that the rate will remain the world s highest at 60% today. The central bank has calmed the markets previously via direct FX intervention. All eyes are now on the government s efforts to get a loan from the IMF. Despite the recent positive developments, the ARS is still seeking a clear direction.
