The dollar has caught a bid after the release of yet another strong jobs report for the US, which included some good news on wages as well as employment.
Earnings growth has long eluded the US recovery and has remained in the mid-2% range for much of the last year. This has led to speculation that the labour market may not be as tight as we thought, especially when you consider how strong job creation still is, but today’s data finally offered some good news on that front. Earnings grew by 2.9% in August, the highest increase since 2009 and potentially a sign that a tight labour market is starting to be seen in people’s pay.
Of course this could be a one-off jump in the data, as we’ve seen in the past, but it does offer further support to the view that the US economy is very strong. Combined with another NFP reading above 200,000 and unemployment being below at 3.9% and things are looking very positive. The one potential downside for Trump may be that the Federal Reserve may be looking at this and wondering what impact a sustained improvement could have on their tightening policy, something the US President has been openly critical of in recent months.
The report was enough to pull cable away from 1.30, where it had been threatening to break above, while the euro was also softer against the dollar having struggled around 1.1650. US Treasury yields are also creeping higher again after the report with the 10-year back above 2.9% and potentially eyeing another run at 3%, which has proven challenging due to its role as a safe haven during uncertain and concerning times.
