The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3266, up 0.73% on the day. On the release front, Canadian ADP Nonfarm Employment Change plunged, posting a reading of -10.5 thousand. This was the first decline of 2018. In the U.S, manufacturing and employment data were better than expected. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 25.7, easily beating the estimate of 21.6 points. Unemployment claims dropped to 207 thousand, better than the estimate of 220 thousand. On Friday, the focus is on consumer indicators. CPI is expected to remain pegged at 0.1%, while retail sales are expected at 0.6%, which would be the first gain in 2018. Traders should be prepared for movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session.
The tariff slugfest between the U.S and its major trading partners has raised serious concerns not just with investors, but with Federal Reserve policymakers as well. The Federal Reserve Beige Book for July, released on Wednesday, was rife with references to ‘tariffs’. This trend started in the April Beige Books after President Trump threatened in March to impose tariffs on China. Most of the twelve Fed regional districts referred to tariffs in their individual reports, which make up the Beige Book. Some Fed policymakers have also voiced their concern over the impact that tariffs could have on the U.S economy and is an issue the Fed will have to take into consideration, as it mulls over rate policy for the next six months.
With trade tensions hovering, investors are keeping a close eye on the Canadian manufacturing sector. There was excellent news earlier in the week, as Manufacturing Sales in May rebounded with a gain of 1.4%, after a 1.3% decline a month earlier. Last week, the Bank of Canada raised rates by a quarter-point last week, to 1.50%. This is the highest level since December 2008. Will we see more rate hikes in 2018, as will likely be the case in the U.S? The BoC rate statement said that “higher rates will be needed” in order to keep inflation close to the target of 2 percent. Policymakers are keeping a close eye on the simmering trade war, which has seen Canada and the U.S impose tariffs on each other’s products. If the Canadian economy can escape the trade war relatively unscathed, we could see another rate hike at the BoE policy meeting in September.
