Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.25 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.55 %, Hang Seng declined 0.20 %, ASX 200 gained 0.20 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1277 (-0.95 %), Silver at $16.90 (-0.25 %), WTI Oil at $49.90 (+0.50 %), Brent Oil at $52.80 (+0.65 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.31, UK 10-year yield at 1.04, German 10-year yield at 0.25
News & Data:
- UK Rightmove House Price Index MoM (Apr): 1.10% (prev 1.30%)
- UK Rightmove House Price Index YoY (Apr): 2.20% (prev 2.30%)
- French poll: Macron, Le Pen through to second round – RTRS
- Euro jumps, shares firm on French election relief – RTRS
- U.S. stocks futures rally after centrist takes first round in French election – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 22K vs 19K short last week. Shorts increase by 3K
- GBP short 99K vs 106K short last week. Shorts decreased by 7K
- JPY short 30K vs 35K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
- CHF short 14K vs 10K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- CAD short 33K vs 32K short. Shorts increased by 1K
- AUD long 43K vs 45K long. Longs trimmed by 2K
- NZD short 15K vs 15K short last week. No change
Markets Update:
The Euro rallied following the outcome of the first round of the French presidential election. The centrist candidate Macron and far-right candidate Le Pen made it into the second round, and the market is expecting that Macron will not have any problems winning the race.
EUR/USD started the new trading week around 1.09, up 150 pips from the Friday close. During the Asian session, the currency pair retraced some of those gains, but found good support ahead of the 1.08 level. The short-term outlook is now positive, and a rally towards 1.10 is likely.
USD/JPY also benefited from the increased risk appetite and made it to 110.55 overnight. The currency pair came slightly under pressure after the Tokyo open, but support is now seen at 109.50.
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Wholesale Sales
- 16:30 GMT – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, April 25th
- 14:00 GMT – US House Price Index
- 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence
- 15:00 GMT – US New Home Sales
- 15:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, April 26th
- 02:30 GMT – Australian CPI
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, April 27th
- 03:00 GMT – Bank of Japan Rate Decision
- 07:00 GMT – Swiss Trade Balance
- 07:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
- 12:45 GMT – ECB Rate Decision
- 13:00 GMT – German CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 GMT – ECB Press Conference
- 15:00 GMT – US Pending Home Sales
Friday, April 28th
- 00:30 GMT – Japanese CPI
- 00:30 GMT – Japanese Unemployment Rate
- 00:50 GMT – Japanese Industrial Production
- 00:50 GMT – Japanese Retail Sales
- 02:30 GMT – Australian PPI
- 06:30 GMT – French GDP
- 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
- 07:45 GMT – French CPI
- 09:00 GMT – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
- 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
- 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 14:45 GMT – US Chicago PMI
