The Japanese yen has posted losses session in the Wednesday session, continuing the trend seen on Tuesday. In the North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 110.43 up 0.36% on the day. On the release front, U.S durable goods pointed to contraction. There was more bad news from the housing front, as Pending Home Sales came in at -0.5%, marking a second straight decline. This missed the estimate of a 0.4% gain. Later in the day, Japan releases Retail Sales, which is expected to drop to 1.3%. On Thursday, the U.S will publish Final GDP for the first quarter and unemployment claims.
U.S durable goods reports in May were a disappointment. Core durable goods orders declined 0.3%, well of the estimate of 0.5% and a 4-month low. Durable goods orders declined for a second straight month, with a reading of -0.6%. Still, this was better than the forecast of -0.9%. Despite the soft May numbers, the data for April was revised upwards, so business spending on equipment is expected to show moderate growth in the second quarter. However, the escalating trade war between the U.S and its trading partners could dampen business spending and send the U.S dollar downwards.
As the second quarter draws to a close, the U.S economy continues to perform well. Economic growth has been strong and the labor market is close to capacity. However, the trade war between the U.S and its major partners could be the dark cloud on the horizon. The Federal Reserve now plans to raise rates four times in 2018 (up from three), but a global trade war could force the Fed to revise its forecast back to three hikes. On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed bank president Raphael Bostic said that if the trade war intensified, he would vote against a fourth rate hike, due to downside risks to the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded pessimistic about the economic effects of trade tensions at an ECB forum earlier in June, and if other Fed members express concerns, a fourth rate hike could be delayed until 2019.
