Dollar and Yen Heading South Again, Sterling and Kiwi Strong
Selling in Dollar and Yen persists again today. New Zealand Dollar is currently the biggest winner, on increasing expectation of RBNZ rate hikes. While Aussie is also strong, Sterling is slightly stealing the show too, with help from renewed buying against Euro. The cautious comments from ECB policymakers are...
Bets Increased for a Bigger RBNZ Hike in November. Yield Spread Widened to Above 200 bps with Japan
NZD remains firm. Hopes of a +50 bps rate hike in November have heightened after the strong inflation report. NZ-US yield spread widened to a level not seen since 2017. More remarkably, NZ-JP yield spread widened to over 200 bps. A more prominent policy divergence between the RBNZ and...
Dollar Selloff Resumes, EUR/USD Breaking Near Term Resistance
Dollar's selloff resumes in Asian session today, while Yen is also trading lower. Risk-on markets in Asia lift New Zealand and Australian Dollar. European majors are mixed for the moment, with Euro trying to recover against Sterling and Swiss Franc. The economic calendar is rather light today, and focuses...
Euro Trading Mildly Higher in Consolidative Markets
The forex markets are generally staying in consolidative mode today, with Euro and Swiss Franc trading mildly higher. Meanwhile, Aussie is leading other commodity currencies for retreats. Dollar is also trying to firm up with 10-year yield breaking above 1.62 handle. Yen, is also mildly higher with help from...
China’s Government is to Blame for Disappointing Growth. Fourth Quarter Not Likely Better as Power and Regulatory Problems Deepen
China's economy falters. GDP expanded +4.9% y/y in 3Q21, weaker than consensus of +5% and +7.9% in the prior quarter. From a quarter ago, the economy climbed only an annualized +0.8%. Power shortage, policy change, uncertainty about the pandemic were to blame for the disappointment. Without quick fixes to these...
Dollar and Yen Pare Losses, Inflation and PMIs to Highlight the Week
Dollar and Yen recover mildly as the week starts, paring some of last week's losses. Buying momentum in both currencies is rather weak so far, and they don't look like bottoming yet. New Zealand Dollar spiked higher earlier today after much stronger than expected consumer inflation data. But the...
Yen Selloff Accelerated on Strong Energy and Commodity Rallies
Yen's selloff accelerated rather steeply last week, on the back of surging commodity and energy prices. Dollar was also pressured this time, as treasury yields retreated and on late rally in stocks. Euro was not to far away, as pressured by selloff in crosses. On the other hand, commodity...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Energy Prices Remain Strong as Power Shortage Persists
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 12, NET LENGTH of crude oil futures rose +6 469 contracts to 404 776. Speculative longs jumped +15 440 contracts while shorts increased +8 971 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for heating oil added...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currency Rebounded on Bargain-Hunting
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 12, NET LENGTH of USD index futures rose +3 306 contracts to 35 062. Bets increased modestly on both sides. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures dropped -3 936 contracts to 18 398....
Sterling Powers Up While Yen Accelerates Lower, Dollar Shrugs Retail Sales
Sterling steals the show today breaking through key resistance levels the Japanese Yen, and a near term low against Euro too. Dollar is trying to strengthen against Euro and Swiss Franc on strong retail sales, but momentum is sluggish elsewhere. There is no change in the selloff in Yen,...
Yen Selloff Looks Unstoppable as Global Stocks Surge
Yen's selloff continues to look unstoppable as global markets are set to end the week on a strong note. Asian stocks are trading broadly higher following the solid rebound in the US overnight. Dollar is also weak, partly weighed down by the extended retreat in treasury yields, but Euro...
CAD, AUD, NZD Rise in Risk-on Markets, JPY Selling in Force
Commodity currencies rise broadly today on the back on risk-on sentiments. Major European indexes are trading up while US futures also point to higher open. Yen is extending recent broad based decline since though treasury yields are in retreat. Dollar and Euro are following as next weakest. Sterling and...
Yen Selloff Resumes, Aussie Shrugs Weak Job Data
Yen's decline resumes in Asian session today, with selling focusing against commodity currencies. Aussie shrugs off slightly weaker than expected job data, and strengthen together with Kiwi and Loonie. On the other hand, Dollar turns slightly softer even though FOMC minutes affirmed tapering to start in November. Euro is...
FOMC Minutes: QE Tapering can Come in As Soon As Mid-November
At the FOMC minutes for the September meeting, the members sent more hints about QE tapering. It is highly likely a formal announcement will be made in November, barring abrupt deterioration of pandemic condition and power shortage problems.
On economic developments, the Fed acknowledged that “economic activity had continued to...
Dollar Firms Up Slightly after CPI, But No Follow Through Buying Yet
Dollar firms up mildly in early US session as headline CPI was back at multi-decade high, which core CPI remains stubbornly strong. The gain in the greenback is so far limited. Overall markets continue to trade in consolidative mode, with mild weakness seen in commodity currencies while Swiss Franc...
Markets in Consolidation as US CPI and FOMC Minutes Awaited
The markets are trading in consolidative mode in Asia today. Dollar attempted to resume near term rally against Euro overnight, but quickly lost momentum. While Yen remains generally weak, selloff slowed, along with slight retreat in US 10-year yield, and retreat in stocks. Traders will turn their focuses firstly...
Euro Softens on Weak Economic Sentiment, Yen Selloff Remains the Main Theme
There is basically no change in the Yen selloff theme in the markets. But buying focus has shifted to commodity currencies, as led by Aussie and Kiwi, as well as Sterling. Euro is turning a touch weaker after poor German sentiment data, while the Pound is supported by job...
OPEC+ Under-produced Despite Energy Crisis
OPEC+ produced less than promised despite global energy shortage. The alliance comprised of 10 OPEC members, 9 non-OPEC producers and 3 OPEC members exempted from quotas produced a total of 40.73M bpd in September, compared with 40.26M bpd a month ago. Output from OPEC-10 and non-OPEC aggregated to 36.57M...
Focus Turns to UK and Germany Data, as Yen Pares Loss
The forex markets turn into consolidative mode in Asian session. Yen recovers mildly, digesting the recent steep selloff. But there is no clear sign of bottoming in the Japanese currency yet. Commodity currencies are also retreating mildly, following some mild selloff in stocks. Euro and Dollar are mixed while...
CAD Supported by Energy Price Strength. Strong Job Market and Inflation Lifted Yields
Falling to the weakest level since August, USDCAD was the worst performer amongst majors (CAD best performer against USD). Loonie’s rebound was driven by energy prices and strong job data. Elevated inflation also has again heightened speculations about BOC’s rate hike.
The major driver of loonie’s strength was energy price....