Sterling Rebound Short-Lived, Risk Aversion Regained Spotlight
The BoE triggered rebound in Sterling was relatively brief. Risk aversion quickly regained the spotlight in the markets. DOW extended its losing streak for the eight day and closed down -196.10 pts or -0.80% at 24461.70. S&P 500 and NASDAQ were down -0.63% and -0.88% respectively. Asian markets follow,...
BOE Voted 6-3 to Keep Rate at 0.5%, QE Tapering Might Come Sooner
Surprisingly, BOE voted 6-3 to leave the Bank rate on hold at 0.50%. Chief economist Andy Haldane joined Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in opting for a +25bps rate hike. The outcome is more hawkish than consensus of a 7-2 vote. The more split committee was resulted from the...
Sterling Jumps as Chance of August BoE Hike Revived by Haldane
Sterling trades as the strongest one today as markets were surprised by the voting on BoE Bank Rate. With the highly respected Chief Economist Andrew Haldane voted for a hike, the chance of an August move in interest rate is heavily boosted. The statement also showed a lot of...
Sterling and Swiss Mixed ahead of BoE and SNB, Dollar Surges as Lifted by Yields
Dollar overtakes Yen as the strongest current for the week as buying merges today. Overnight's rebound in treasury yield gives the greenback a helping hand. 10 year yield gained 0.035 to close the regular session at 2.928 and it breached 2.95 in Asia. Gold also extends recent slump on...
US Crude Inventory Fell More Than Expected, All Eyes on OPEC Meeting This Friday
Crude oil prices recovered US inventory fell more than expected. The focus this week is undoubtedly the OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 22-23. the cartel members, together with some non-OPEC producers, would discuss the possibility of raising output. A Bloomberg report suggests that the producers are considering an...
Forex Markets Calmed in Range, Focus Turns to Central Bankers
The forex markets are relatively steady today as sentiments stabilized a bit. Yen and Sterling are so far the strongest ones today but for different reasons. The Japanese Yen is digesting this week's strong risk aversion move, and seller could gather much momentum. Meanwhile, Sterling trying to pare back...
Yen Retreats Mildly as Sentiments Stabilized, Sterling Weak ahead of BoE
Sentiments somewhat stabilized slightly in Asia as markets digest trade war triggered losses. China's Shanghai composite is losing -0.59% at the time of writing. But Nikkei and Hong Kong HSI are up 0.36% and 0.41% respectively. DOW lost -287.26 or -1.15% to close at 24700.21, but it has already...
US Companies Doomed to Suffer from Trump’s Protectionist Policy
US-China trade tensions intensified shortly after Trump-Kim Summit. Last Friday (Jun 15), the White House announced that it would impose 25% tariffs on a list of Chinese exports worth of US$34B, effective on 6 July, with another list of goods, covering US$ 16B under further review. In response, China...
Risk Aversion Dominates as Trade War Could Mean More than Tariffs
The financial markets are rocked by Trump's over-the-top escalation in trade spat with China. At the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.4%, DAX down -1.2% and CAC down -1.1%. Dow opens by dropping more than -300%. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest ones...
Yen Continues to Shine as Trade Tension Escalates. AUD, NZD, CAD Suffer
Yen and Swiss Franc continue to dominate the market on risk aversion as trade tensions escalate. The US markets didn't perform too badly indeed. DOW closed just down -103.01 pts or -0.41% overnight at 24987.47. S&P was down -5.91 pts or -0.21%. NASDAQ even managed to gain 0.65 pts...
Swiss Franc and Yen Firmer on Mild Risk Aversion
Swiss Franc and Yen are trading as the strongest ones for today on mild risk aversion. A wave of buying is seen in Euro entering into US session. But for now, Euro is trading up against Dollar, Sterling and Aussie for the day only. Some attributes today's weakness in...
BOE Preview – Focus on June Meeting Minutes
Last month, BOE left the policy rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. It acknowledged the growth slowdown in the first quarter but noted that more information is needed to confirm whether it was driven by temporary factors. Although deputy governor Dave Ramsden suggested earlier...
Yen Higher as Sentiments Weighed Down by Trade Tensions and Osaka Earthquake
Yen trades generally higher in Asian session today on mild risk aversion. Escalation of trade tension between US and China is a factor weighing on sentiments. The 6.1 earthquake in Osaka also pressures Japanese stocks. Nikkei is trading down -0.8% at the time of writing. Euro is broadly lower...
China Growth Weakened Significantly in May. Crackdown on Credit is Biting
We expect the slowdown in China’s economic growth would be increasingly evident in coming months, reflecting the rapid moderation in credit growth in the first half of the year. PBOC left its policy rate unchanged, although FOMC lifted the Fed funds rate by +25 bps, in June. This was...
Traders Bet for Further Strength Despite USD’s Pullback
Both bulls and bears added bets on US dollar ahead of the June FOMC meeting, as suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 12. Both speculative long and short positions were increased in USD Index (DXY) futures, resulting in Net LENGTH of 4 663...
Bets for Higher Precious Metal Prices Increased Despite Fed’s Rate Hike
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended Jun 12, net LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +11 717 contracts to 595 293. Net LENGTH for heating oil futures dropped -4 208 contracts to 34 597 while that for gasoline declined -7 965 contracts to 85 868....
Dollar Surged on Hawkish Fed, Trade War Threat Ignored
Dollar surged broadly last week as Fed policymakers finally made up their mind on hiking a total of four times this year, as reflected in the new projections. The greenback was also helped by ECB monetary policy decision, with traders disappointed on the rate path. The headlines were then...
Stocks to Suffer, But Forex Steady as Trump Ignores Americans and Fires Another Shot in Trade War
US stocks futures are rocked by the announcement on formalizing the Section 301 tariffs against China. DOW futures point to triple digit loss at open and could threaten 25000 handle. The forex markets are relatively calm though. Euro is paring back some of yesterday's post ECB losses and takes...
Dollar Extending Post ECB Gains, Section 301 Tariffs Against China to be Formalized
Dollar is trading as the strongest one as partly helped by the post ECB selloff in Euro. In part, there were delayed reactions to the hawkish Fed announcement too, which indicates it will hike two more times this year. The greenback in extending it's strong, broad based gains in...
ECB to End QE in December, No Rate Hike At Least Until Summer 2019
ECB's decisions in June came in largely in line with our expectations, although it might have contained surprises for other market participants. The central bank decides to reduce the size of its QE program to 15B euro/ month, from the current 30B euro/ month, from October. The entire purchase...