The Real Meaning of “No Deal” Brexit
The market is thrilled by comments from Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator on Brexit, who noted that the EU is “prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country”. We do not see any breakthrough from those comments, just as we...
Sterling Surged on Brexit Deal Optimism, New Zealand Dollar Tumbles on Business Confidence
Sterling surged overnight as boosted by comments from EU indicating that they're committed to a deal Brexit deal with the UK. The Pound remains firm in Asian session and is now the strongest one for the week. Swiss Franc is mixed in Asia but remains the second strongest one....
Crude Oil Prices Soared on US Inventory Decline and Expectations of Tighter Market
Crude oil prices extended recent rally, as US inventory dropped more than expected and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast oil market to tighten towards year end. The front-month WTI crude oil contract gained +1.43% while the Brent contract rose +1.57%. Both benchmarks rebounded, by +4.26% and 5.56% respectively, in...
Euro Tumbles as Turkish Crisis Re-emerges, Lira Down 3%
Euro suffers broad based selling today, except versus Australian Dollar, as Turkish Lira crisis re-emerges. Notable rally is seen in USD/TRY which is up around 3% at the time of writing. On the other hand, Sterling, Swiss Franc and Dollar take advantage of the situation and rises broadly. Canadian...
Canadian Dollar Firm as Trade Talk Restarts, Risk Appetite Losing Momentum
Canadian Dollar remains firms today as Canada-US trade negotiation restarted. Initial signs are positive but more work is needed to be done, swiftly. Australian and New Zealand Dollar follow as Asians stocks strengthen mildly. Yen is trading as the weakest one on risk appetite, followed by Sterling as there...
Canadian Dollar Accelerates Higher as Signs are Good for Trade Deal, Euro Stays Strong
Dollar selloff continues today as full-blown trade war fear receded. Yen follows as the second weakest on return of global risk appetite. Euro's strongest pace was overtaken by Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar. The Loonie is awaiting the Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland's visit to Washington. But so far,...
PBOC Prevents Renminbi from Testing 7 Per US Dollar
China is on pins and needles as it sees renminbi (Chinese yuan) fall. The government dares not risk massive capital flight for uncertain benefit in exports by depreciating its currency. The apparent increases in FX reserve over the past months could hardly conceal concerns over renminbi weakness, which has...
Death of NAFTA? Or Just Trump’s Lip Service
The US and Mexico announced that they have reached a bilateral trade deal. Notwithstanding the facts that the preliminary agreement does not involve Canada and lacks details, and the US Congress would not vote on it until next year, President Trump has declared victory in ending NAFTA- a trilateral...
Stocks, Euro and Canadian Dollar Jump on Trump’s Concession in Mexican Trade Deal
Be it NAFTA or United States-Mexico Trade Agreement, the markets global markets cheer the conclusion of the bilateral deal. DOW ended up 1.01% at 26049.54. S&P 500 and NASDAQ extended record runs, gained 0.77% to 2896.74 and 0.91% to 8017.909 respectively. Asian markets are also generally higher. At the...
Sterling Upside Attempt, Yen Maintains Gain in Mixed Markets
The forex markets has been rather quiet for most of the day. But activity seems to pick up in early US session. Yen remains generally firm despite strong global risk appetite. But it's losing ground to Sterling as the the latter attempts for a rally. Euro is currently trading...
Powell Signals He Would be More Cautious in Face of Uncertainty
Weaker USD, lower Treasury yields, higher equities… Market reactions showed that Fed’s chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole symposium was interpreted as “dovish".
Discussing about “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy”, Powell revealed the challenges of navigating the stars – u*, the natural rate of unemployment, r*, the neutral...
Yen Rises Despite Strong Risk Appetite, Dollar Regains Some Ground
Risk appetite was rather strong in Asian session today. Nikkei closed up 0.88% at 22799.64. At the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is up 2.05%, China Shanghai SSE is up 1.70% and Singapore Strait Times is up 0.63%. The rally in stocks is partly due to record close...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets in USD Might Drop Next Week as Powell Dovish at Jackson Hole
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 21, NET LENGTH of USD index rose +2 089 contracts for 34 122 contracts for the week. However, this was driven by the decline in speculative short positions offsetting that of longs. during the reporting...
CFTC Commitments of Traders : Bearish over Commodities
Traders have turned bearish on the commodity market, amidst concerns over deceleration in Chinese economic growth and US oil production. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 21, traders trimmed speculative long positions of crude oil futures by -13 183 contracts. Meanwhile, they increased...
Dollar in Medium Term Correction after Plunging on Trump and Fed Powell
Yen ended the week broadly lower, as the worst performing one, on return of risk appetite. That came with S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record highs. Dollar ended as the second weakest one as it's firstly talked down by Trump. Secondly, markets took Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech...
Mixed Fedspeaks and Durables, Dollar Recovery Lost Steam as Powell Eyed
Dollar trades broadly lower today, except versus Yen as it's recovery quickly lost steam. Comments from Fed officials are mixed while markets are awaiting Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole symposium at 1400GMT. Durable goods orders report is mixed too, with weak headline numbers, but solid details....
Australian Dollar Higher on ScoMo Win, Powell in Jackson Hole Watched
Australia Dollar recovers broadly today as markets cheered Scott Morrison's win in the Liberal Party's leadership challenge. But upside is so far limited. New Zealand Dollar is trading as the second strongest one for today so far, followed by Dollar. On the other hand, Yen is under broad based...
Dollar Rebound in Progress But Momentum Weak, Aussie Selloff Extends
Dollar is still trading as the strongest for today even though the rebound looks a bit unconvincing. In particular, the greenback is effectively just range bound against against European majors. And in fact, it's taking turn to be the strongest with Swiss Franc. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar remains the weakest...
Australian Dollar Plunges on Political Turmoil, Dollar Higher as Tariffs on China Kicks In
Political turmoil in Australia takes the headline over from the US as the Aussie dives broadly today. While two former aides of Trump are likely going to jail soon, special prosecutor Robert Mueller's investigation will take long to complete. However, Australia could have the seventh Prime Minister in a...
FOMC to Continue Rate Hike Despite Trump’s Criticism
The minutes for the July FOMC meeting affirmed that the policy rate is prone to increase in September, notwithstanding Trump’s pressure. The members remained upbeat over the economic growth outlook but warned on downside risk due to intensifying trade tensions. They acknowledged the need to amend the language to...