OPEC+ Maintains Output Cut. Market Balance Suggests No Practical Need to Raise Output
OPEC+ stayed put, maintaining the output cut agreed in December last year while pledging to monitor market developments with an option to raise production later. In our opinion, there is no practical need for OPEC+ to officially raise output. Despite US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, as well as...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Bets Trimmed Further as Trader War Uncertainty Persists
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 14, traders trimmed their bets, on both long and short sides, on futures of US dollar index, euro, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar. On the other hand, bets on both sides were increased in the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Oil Traders Awaited OPEC+ Meeting; Bets for Higher Gold Price Surged Amidst Safe Haven Demand
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 14, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -6 528 contracts to 487 808 for the week. Speculative long positions declined -8 810 contracts while shorts slipped -2 282. Overall bets for crude oil diminished as...
CHF, USD & JPY Surged on Deals, Sterling Plummeted
Deal, deal, deals. They're the main themes in the markets last week. The cross-party Brexit talks in UK collapsed and a high profile Brexiteer is tipped to lead the Brexit process after current Prime Minister steps down. Tensions between US and China escalated further. A trade deal is now...
Sterling Pressured as Cross-Party Brexit Talks Collapsed, Sentiments also Weighed Down by Trade Worries
Sterling suffers heavy selling today as after Brexit negotiations between the UK government and opposition Labour formally collapsed. More uncertainties lie ahead as Prime Minister Theresa May will lay our the time line for stepping down, whether her Brexit deal would be approved by the Commons in June or...
Yen Mildly Higher as China Said to be Unkeen to Resume Trade Talks with US
Asian markets once again decouple from the US. While US stocks staged a strong rebound overnight, Asian indices are generally mixed. Weakness is indeed seen in China's Shanghai SSE while Yuan resumes recent free fall. There is some negative reaction to report that China is not eager to resume...
Sterling Extends Decline, Markets Shrug Trumps Huawei Threats
Market sentiments are generally steady today. Better than expected job and housing data lift Dollar mildly higher in early US session. Yen and Swiss Franc are trading of the softer side, paring some of this week's gains. While US moves to contain Huawei catch a lot of headlines, there...
Yen Firm as Risk Aversion Remains, Australian Dollar Lower on Unemployment Rate
US stocks recovered overnight on talks that Trump is going to delay auto tariffs decision, due May 18, by up to 6-months. All major stock indices staged mild recovery. German DAX also reversed earlier losses to close higher. However, such optimism wasn't carried through to Asian session today. In...
US Crude Oil Inventory Jumped to Highest Level since 2017
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +14.64 mmb to 1270.26 mmb in the week ended May 10. Crude oil inventory rose 5.43 mmb to 472.04 mmb (consensus: -0.8 mmb). While this marks the highest...
Yen and Franc Surge as German Yield in Free Fall on Italy Budget
Worries over Italy's budget takes center stage today. Italy 10-year yield hit as high as 2.812. On the other hand, German 10-year yield dived to as low as -0.131. US 10-year yield is also dragged down to as low as 2.364 so far. These are clearly signs of risk...
China’s Slowdown Resumes as Seasonal Effects Faded
Economic data in April prove that China’s economy is not yet out of the wood. Growth in industrial production , retail sales and fixed asset investment all surprised to downside, suggesting that the rebound in March was only due to one-off, temporary factors. Re-escalation of US-China trade war is...
Australian Dollar Tumbles on Wage Growth Miss, China Data Point to More Slowdown
After some initial hesitation, Asian markets picked up some momentum and strengthen broadly, recovering some of this week's losses. Though, strength is so far limited with lots of uncertainty ahead. It's a fact that US-China trade war is dragging on for longer despite Trump's "positive" words. At the same...
Market Sentiments Stabilized, UK Job Data and German Confidence Ignored
Markets sentiments generally stabilized today as it seems that US and China are still will to continue trade negotiations. Nevertheless, otherwise some pleasing words, there is nothing concrete, not even a scheduled meeting. Further decline in German 10-year yield, deeper into negative territory, is a sign of nervousness among...
Yen and Franc Retreat as Sentiments Stablized Somewhat, But More Tariffs Still on the Way
Market sentiments somewhat stabilized in Asian session today. Major indices opened lower, following the selloff in US. But losses are so far rather limited. Indeed, in the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc are paring some of yesterday's strong gains while Gold also retreats back to below 1300. USD/CNH...
US-China Trade War Intensifies as China Retaliates
Financial markets are in turbulence as China announced to raise tariff of US$60B of US exports to 25% from 10%, effective June 1. This was followed by US’ threat to levy tariff on the remaining Chinese exports (worth of about US$ 300B) in as soon as summer. While China's...
China Announced Retaliations as Nobody Read Trump’s Threat Tweets
Rallies in Yen and Swiss Franc accelerate while selloffs in commodity currencies intensify on US-China trade war today. Trump "stepped up" his pressure on China and warned the latter not to retaliate. But it's actually unsure who he was talking to as it's a known that Twitter is blocked...
Risk Aversion Staying after US and China Admitted the Gulf of Differences in Trade
Markets are back in risk averse mode in Asian session, with heavy selloff see in Chinese stocks and Yuan. Some noted that the gulf between US and China in trade talks have widened since last week's development. But the "gulf" has always been there. The negotiations just reached a...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets (on Both Longs and Shorts) in Major Currencies as Trump Escalated Trade War with China
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 7, NET LENGTH in USD Index decreased -716 contracts to 28 233. Both speculative long and short positions fell during the week. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European currencies, NET...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Lower Energy Prices as Trade War Concerns Reignited
Trump's announcement of raising tariff of Chinese imports to 25%, from 10%, has renewed concerns over the US-China trade war, and its impacts on global economic outlook. The uncertainty has dampened energy prices. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 7, NET LENGTH...
US-China Trade War Escalated, No End in Sight as Principle Differences Remain
US-China trade war was the center of global focus last week. Markets were expecting a deal with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He visited Washington Instead Trump announced to escalate to full-blown level after China reneged on its commitments during the negotiations. Trump's decision was understandable even though it may...