RBA Turns More Upbeat Over GDP Growth, Keeps Rates Unchanged amidst Low Inflation
The RBA meeting this month is a non-event. As widely anticipated, the members left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, for the 25th consecutive meeting. The members remained upbeat over the economic outlook, expecting the job market to strengthen further and wage growth to improve. The central bank left...
Australian Dollar Mildly Higher as RBA Raised Growth Forecasts, But Upside Capped
Australian Dollar trades broadly higher today after RBA stood pat but raised growth forecast a little. Though, it's being held below last week's high against both Dollar and Euro. More evidence is needed to prove its strength. Sterling, on the other hand, shows a bit promises by extending recent...
Sterling Firm Despite Weaker Data and Brexit News, Swiss Franc Weakest
Swiss Franc is clearly the weakest one for today so far. In particular selloff intensifies somewhat in European session. Weakness of the Franc also drags down Euro, which is trading as the second weakest. On the other hand, Sterling is taking turn to be the strongest with New Zealand...
FOMC Preview – Affirming a Strong Economic Case for December Rate Hike
The aim of the FOMC meeting later this week is to prepare the market for a December rate hike. While the recent stock market crash and slowdown in inflation have trimmed bet for a December rate hike to 77.5% from 80% a month ago, the macroeconomic environment is still...
Forex Markets in Range, Yawn Unambitious Chinese President Xi
The forex markets open the week rather quietly. Sterling and Dollar are generally firmer but are both kept below Friday's high. The Pound did attempt to rise against Euro at open but quickly retreated back into familiar range. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar are...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – GBP Got Biggest Increase in NET SHORT, Ahead of BOE Comments
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 30 shows that all major currencies (except USD) were in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index added +1 040 contracts while shorts dropped -455, sending the NET LENGTH higher, by +1 495 contracts, to 39 523...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Longs on Oil Continued to Shrink
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures all continued to drop. Oil prices dived during the reporting week, with the front-month WTI crude oil contract dipping -0.38% while the Brent contract was...
Trade War Overshadows Fundmentals in the US, Election to Join the Party
What is a bigger driver of volatility in the markets, politics or monetary policy? Judging only from last week's development, politics got the nod, at least in the US. Investor sentiments initially sank on report that Trump was ready impose more tariffs on China, as soon as in December....
Dollar Trying to Recover as NFP Beat Expectations, Euro Strong as German-Italian Spread Narrows
After being pressured for most of the day, Dollar is trying to recover in early US session after better than expected job data. Though, momentum remains weak so far, and the greenback is trading mixed only. On the other hand, there is little change in Yen's fortune, which remains...
Progress in US-China Trade Talks Boosts Sentiments and Australian Dollar, Non-Farm Payroll Watched
Asian stocks, as well as Australian and New Zealand Dollar, are shot up by optimism that US-China trade negotiation is having some nice progress. At the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is leading the way up with 2.4% gain. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.21%. Nikkei and Singapore...
Hawkish Carney Signals Overheating Economy Could Accelerate BOE Rate Hikes
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank sent a more hawkish-than-expected message to the market. While reiterating...
Sterling Strong as Supported by More Confident BoE, Ignores Brexit Deal Dismissal and Weak Data
Sterling remains strong in general today, next to Australian and New Zealand Dollar. UK and EU officials came out dismissing the news regarding a Brexit financial services deal. But that didn't harm the Pound a bit. Instead, Sterling ignore weak manufacturing data and is supported by slightly more confidence...
US Crude Oil Inventory Increased for Another Week as Output Soared
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks declined -6.4 mmb to 1248.6 mmb in the week ended October 26. Crude oil inventory increased +3.22 mmb (consensus: +4.11 mmb) to 426 mmb. Inventories increased in 3 out of of...
Sterling Rides on Brexit Optimism, Look into BoE Economic Projections
Sterling surged overnight on Brexit optimism and is boosted further in Asia with more Brexit-positive news. Though, for today, it's overwhelmed by Australian and New Zealand Dollar on strong risk appetite. The Pound will need to look into BoE economic projections for more inspirations. Dollar, on the other hand,...
Dollar Lifted by Strong ADP Employment, EUR/USD to Take on 1.13 Key Support
Dollar is trading broadly higher today. In particular, new buying emerges after stronger than expected ADP employment report. USD/CHF breaches 1.0067 key resistance. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is also closing in on 1.1300 key support. Nonetheless, Dollar is overwhelmed by Sterling, which is the strongest one today. There is practically no...
Brexit: No News is Bad News
At the meeting later this week, we expect BOE members to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. The macroeconomic indicators released during the inter-meeting period are mixed, while no progress on Brexit negotiations although the deadline is...
Dollar Regains Control as Stocks and Yield Rebound, Facing Key Levels Against Euro, Sterling and Franc
Dollar index jumped overnight and breached 96.98 key resistance, with the help from rebound in stocks and treasury yields. But strength of the greenback mainly centered against Sterling, Swiss Franc and Yen. It's holding in range against Euro, Canadian and Australian for the moment. As for today, Sterling is...
Yen Extends Fall as Calm Markets Shrug US-China Trade War Threats
Yen trades broadly lower today as stock markets stabilized in both Asian and Europe. Meanwhile, Sterling, and Euro are following as the weakest. There is no sign of breakout of any kind in Brexit negotiation. Economic data out of Eurozone were also disappointing and point to further slow down....
Populist Sentiment Still Evolving – Brazil and Germany Markets Responded Positively
The Brazilian presidential and German state elections over the weekend have sent a common message - the desire for change. The election results reveal that the anti-establishment and populist sentiment continues to ferment. Both elections have led to severe loss of the establishment and upsurge in the right-wing, populist...
Asian Markets Rebound as Trump Toned Down Trade War Threat, Dollar and Yen Soften
Early rebound in US stocks overnight initially supported Dollar. But the greenback couldn't hold on to the gains as stocks suffered steep reversal. Fed's rate hike was not the reason for the selloff. Instead, the trigger of the late selloff in US equities was threat of Trump's escalation of...