Optimism on US-China Trade Talks Lift Sentiments, Canadian Dollar Strong ahead of BoC
Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher today as risk appetite is lifted by optimism over US-China trade negotiations in Beijing. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported by rally in oil price, with WTI breaking 50 handle. On the other hand, Yen is trading as the weakest one, followed by Swiss...
Dollar Trying to Recover Further as 10-Year Yield Back Above 2.7
Canadian and US Dollar are the strongest ones in a rather quiet day. WTI crude oil stays firm above 49 but there is no buying to push it through 50 handle yet. But that's enough to keep the Loonie buoyed ahead of BoC rate decision tomorrow. Dollar is supported...
FX 2019 – Persistent Brexit Uncertainty Suggests GBP to Stay Volatile
Brexit uncertainty continues to be the key determinant of sterling’s movement in the coming quarters. Market consensus signals that GBPUSD would rally as much as 4% in 6 months and about 6% in 2019. The forecasts are based on the assumption of a smooth Brexit. We are, however, skeptical...
Dollar Higher after Defending Support, Canadian Even Stronger
Dollar trades generally higher in Asian session today, rebound from near term support levels against Euro and Swiss Franc. The greenback is also seen losing some downside momentum against Sterling and Australian Dollar. Recovery in US treasury yields help and there is also some optimism on the result of...
Euro Shrugs Off Deteriorating Investor Confidence, Rises Together With Swiss Franc
Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest major currencies in a rather quiet day today. Mild recovery in German bund yield is giving the common currency a little lift. But the main drive in the forex market is Dollar's weakness. The greenback is trading as the worst performing one....
BOC Preview – No Change in Rates, Dovish Stance Accompanied by Modest Forecast Downgrades
We expect BOC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% at the upcoming meeting this week. Besides releasing the statement and Monetary Policy Report, the central bank would also update the economic forecasts and host a press conference. The focus of the meeting would be possible downward revisions...
Dollar Broadly Lower on Cautious Fed Powell, US Government Shutdown Continues
Riding on the strong rally in the US on Friday, Asian opened the week generally higher. While major Asian indices maintain gains, there is no follow through buying seen. There seems to be enough risks to keep investors' hands tied, including the result of the vice ministerial level US-China...
FX 2019 – JPY to Shine In Risk-Off Environment
We are not convinced that the "flash crash" of USDJPY last Thursday was driven by Apple.Inc's lowering of guidance, especially on China. The rally in Japanese yen during the time did not just appear in USDJPY, but also other JPY-crosses, such as AUD and TRY. There are factors underlying...
Sentiments Saved as Fed Powell Turned Cautious, China Stepped Up Supporting Measures
There were big roller coaster rides in the financial markets last week. Apple's sales outlook downgrade heightened the concerns over serious slowdown in the Chinese economy. There was the "Currency Flash Crash" which sent through all key technical resistance levels while Australian Dollar tumbled to multi-year low. The partial...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained Marginally, In Contrast with Hopes of Decline
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks gained +14.62 mmb to 1242.16 mmb in the week ended December 28. Crude oil inventory rose +0.01 mmb to 441.42 mmb (consensus: -3.09 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out of 5...
Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Lift Sentiments, Dollar Rises With Hesitation
Global stock markets are staging a strong rebound today as China announced to cut bank reserve requirement to help the private sector and small companies. There is also a sense of optimism as China and US finally confirmed that trade talks will resume in Beijing early next week. US...
Asian Markets Stabilized as China Pledges Countercyclical Measures, Yen Continues to Pare Gains
Despite the deep selloff in US stocks overnight, Asian markets are rather calm. Sentiments are somewhat lifted as China pledged to provide more stimulus, in particular to private and small companies. At the time of writing, Yen is trading as the weakest one for today, continuing to pare back...
Dollar Weighed Down by Dovish Fed Comments, Canadian Lifted by Oil Rebound
Dollar received no support from better than expected ADP employment data. Instead, it's weighed down by dovish comments from a Fed official. The greenback is trading as the second weakest for today in early US session. It's just slightly better than Sterling, which continues to be pressured by Brexit...
Yen in Driving Seat after Currency Flash Crash, Australian Dollar Suffers
Yen is trading as the strongest one for today after what many described as "currency crash". Key levels in many Yen crosses were breached. or even broken. In particular, USD/JPY just hold on to 2017 low at 104.62 after hitting 104.69. AUD/JPY even breached 72.39 (2016 low) and hit...
Yen Stays Strongest on Global Risk Aversion and Diving Yields
Yen remains the strongest one for today as the risk aversion dominates the global markets. Major European indices do pare back much of earlier losses. But it's unsure whether the recovery could sustain. Persistent decline in German 10 year bund yield, which hit the lowest since April 2017, is...
China’s PMIs Confirmed Manufacturing Sector in Contraction
The latest PMI data added further evidence that China’s economy is in bad shape. Trade war with the US has not only weakened trade, but also domestic demand. The job market has also deteriorated, suggesting further stimulus is needed to be in place as soon as possible. We expect...
Yen Jumps as Asian Markets in Deep Selloff to Start the New Year
Yen surges broadly while Australian Dollar is pressured as Asian markets start the new year with deep selloff. Hong Kong HSI is quickly down over -2.3% in initial trading. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.0% and Singapore Strait Times is down -0.48%. Japan is still on holiday. Canadian and...
FX 2019 – Market Too Optimistic about BOC’s Rate Hike Path and Success of NAFTA 2.0
Canadian dollar weakened against US dollar in 2018, first time in three years. Loonie declined over -7% against the greenback last year, with much of the selloff took place in the third quarter. Key factors driving CAD’s movement are BOC’s rate hike path, crude oil price, ratification of USMCA...
Less- than- Expected Decline in US Crude Oil Inventory Failed to Rescue Price
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products stocks dropped -2.05 mmb to 1227.54 mmb in the week ended December 21. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.05 mmb (consensus: -2.87 mmb) to 441.41 mmb. Inventories increased in ALL 5 PADDs. Meanwhile,...
Swiss Franc Shows Power ahead of Weekend, Stocks Rebound in Progress
Just ahead of the weekend, Swiss Franc shows broad based power today as it surges across the board. Yen is trading as the second strongest one, but with much weaker momentum. For now, we're unsure of the exact reason for the rally. European stocks are enjoying a solid rebound....