PBOC’s Aggressive Liquidity Injection Reveals Severe Growth Slowdown
PBOC has aggressively increased market liquidity. In the form of reverse repo operations, the central bank announced Wednesday that a total of RMB 570B would be pumped to the market. With RMB 10B of previous reverse repo maturing, the net injection would be RMB 560B. While the central bank...
Sterling Stays Firm after May Won Confidence Vote, Euro and Swiss Franc Turning Softer
Sterling is staying as the strongest one for the week after UK Prime Minister Theresa May narrowed survived the confidence vote in Commons. Though, there is no follow through buying against Dollar. Upside momentum in the Pound is also relatively weak against Euro and Yen. Traders would probably stay...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell More than Expected, While Production Climbed Higher
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +5 mmb to 1260.4 mmb in the week ended January 11. Crude oil inventory fell -2.68 mmb to 437.06 mmb (consensus: -1.32 mmb). Inventories decreased in 3 out of...
Sterling Firm in Tight Range as Focus Turns to PM May’s No-Confidence Vote
The forex markets are rather quiet today. Sterling, US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the stronger ones The Pound is supported by increasing chance of a delay in Brexit, or no Brexit at all. Canadian Dollar is lifted as WTI crude oil rebound and is back at 51.8. Meanwhile,...
Sterling Steady after May’s Humiliating Brexit Defeat, Euro Weakens on Slowdown Worries
The historic defeat of UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the Brexit deal triggered some volatility in the Pound. But no clear direction is seen in Sterling after all the moves. It's staying bounded in relatively tight range overall, with a bias for further rise. UK CPI is usually...
PM May’s Brexit Deal Rejected. What Next?
The UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal (Withdrawal Agreement) proposed by PM Theresa May at 432 to 202 votes. The 230- vote margin marks the biggest defeat in the country’s political history. The government now has three days to work on a new plan, which has to be agreed...
Euro Weighed Down by Germany Slowdown Worries, Sterling Pares Gain ahead of Brexit Vote
European majors are trading notably lower today. Euro is weighed down by concerns over slowdown in Germany, which might already had a technical recession in Q3 and Q4 already. Sterling also pares back some gains again traders turn cautious, ahead of the Brexit meaningful vote. Commodity currencies are relatively...
FX 2019 – EUR’s Upside Limited by Growth Deceleration and Political Risks
GDP growth should have moderated in 4Q18 and would remain lukewarm 1H19. Although the Italian government eventually backed down in the budget plan, political risks in the region have not yet abated. European Parliament election scheduled in mid-May and ongoing uncertainty about Brexit would still cause the euro to...
Pound Strong ahead of Brexit Vote, Yen Soft as China Pledges Strong Start
Risk appetite stages a come back in Asian session today as China pledged to "strive for a good start" in 2019. With Asian markets having broad based gains, New Zealand Dollar is leading commodity currencies higher. On the other hand, Yen is back under pressure, followed by Swiss Franc....
Brexit and China Dominates Headlines, Yen Stays Strong
Brexit and China are the two main themes in the markets today. For now Yen is the strongest one so far followed by Swiss Franc. Risk aversion is triggered by terrible trade data from China which intensified worries over slow down. Both imports and expects contracted in the fastest...
Yen Broadly Higher on Risk Aversion after Ugly Chinese Trade Data
Yen strengthens broadly today as Asian stocks are weighed down by rather terrible Chinese trade balance data. Trade war with the US is hurting both exports and imports. But judging from the data alone, it's unsure who suffered more. Nevertheless, the situation could change in the months ahead as...
Brexit to Take the Spotlight from Fed, Trade War and US Government Shutdown
Risk sentiments continued to recover last week as Fed officials indicated they would be patient before making the next rate move. Positive developments of US-China trade talks also helped. One notable development was the rebound in US treasury yields as 10-year yield reclaimed 2.7 while 30-year yield is back...
Sterling Jumps on Brexit Delay Talks, Dollar Steady after CPI
Sterling surges broadly today on rumor that there will be delay in the Brexit date. Even though the government came out quickly denying intention for Article 50 extension, the Pound stays firm. As next Tuesday's Brexit meaningful vote looms, it's just getting less and less likely for the Brexit...
Dollar Stays Soft as Fed Powell and Clarida Called for Patience, But No Extended Selling
Dollar continues to trade as the weakest one for today and the week. The chorus of Fed's "patience" rhetoric continued overnight with the top two men in Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida. But the marginal impact in the markets seem to be diminishing. Stocks were just...
Forex Markets Turn Mixed as Stocks Rebound Fade, More Fed Speaks Ahead
The forex markets is rather mixed today, partly thanks to fading momentum in global stock rebound. Australian Dollar is so far the strongest one for today. Dollar follows as second strongest, paring some of yesterday's losses. Yen is the third strongest. But no apparent momentum is seen in all...
FOMC Minutes Reveal Dovish Notes Which Were Hidden in December
To us, the message conveyed in the FOMC minutes for the December meeting was somehow different from those at the post-meeting press conference. From the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, we judged that the Fed turned a bit more cautious over the economic and financial market outlooks....
Dollar Weakened Broadly as Fed Seeks Patience, Government Shutdown Continues
Dollar is turning mixed in Asian session today, but it remains the weakest one for the week. The greenback was knocked down by a wave of cautious comments from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC minutes. In short, Fed could be "patient" before making another rate move. And...
BOC Pushed Back Timing for Next Rate Hike, Trimmed GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts for 2019
As we expected, BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in yesterday. Policymakers admitted that the decline in oil price has “material” impact on the economy. Yet, they viewed the impact as transitory. Reflecting the view on economy projections, the central bank downgraded the GDP growth forecast for...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell Less Than Expected, While Fuel Stocks Increased Markedly
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +13.28 mmb to 1255.44 mmb in the week ended January 4. Crude oil inventory fell -1.68 mmb to 439.74 mmb (consensus: -2.8 mmb). Inventories decreased in 3 out of...
Global Markets Surge as US-China Trade Talks Ended Positively
Global stock markets are boosted by optimism over US-China trade negotiation. And commodity currencies ride on positive sentiment to strengthen broadly today. On the other hand, Yen is clearly under broad based pressure as risk aversion receded. It's followed by Dollar and then Swiss Franc. Euro shows little reaction...