US Crude Oil Inventory Increased Less than Expected. Refined Stocks Declined
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -2.49 mmb to 1263.03 mmb in the week ended February 15 Crude oil inventory added +3.67 mmb to 454.51 mmb (consensus: +3.08 mmb). Inventories jumped +3.39 mmb in...
Dollar Weakens Again on Data Disappointment, Eyes Trade Talk Results
Dollar turns weaker again in early US session after data disappointment. Also, the USDA reported that US farm exports to China will suffer steep decline. Business in the US are eager to know more about the progress of US-China trade negotiation. There are reports that China offers to buy...
Crude Oil Price’s Rally Likely Short-lived. Outlook Dim as Global Growth Slowdown Persists
Crude oil prices rallied, sending the WTI and Brent benchmarks to the highest level since November 2017. Investors shrugged off rising US shale rig counts and higher inventory, but focused on hopes of resolution to US-China trade war. Adding to the optimism was OPEC compliance and ongoing sanctions against...
Australian Dollar Tumbles on RBA Cut Talks & Dalian Coal Import Ban
Australian Dollar was the center of focus in Asian session today. Stellar job data provided some brief boost to the Aussie. It was then hammered by talks of two RBA rate cuts this year. Selloff accelerates further on news that China's Dalian ports banned the countries' coal imports. In...
FOMC Minutes – Balance Sheet Reduction Likely Ends This Year
In the minutes for the January FOMC meeting, the members elaborated the rationale for their dovish shift. While affirming solid growth and the resilient employment market, the members focused on the softening inflation and were concerned about the “muted” price pressure. Together with rising uncertainty from aboard, including rapid...
Dollar Recover Mildly ahead of FOMC Minutes, Sterling Pares Gains
Dollar and Yen recover mildly today but remains the two weakest for the week. For now, there is little news regarding the US-China trade talks in Washington. Focus will turn to minutes of January 29/30 FOMC meeting first. There Fed made a drastic turn and declare it will be...
Dollar Turning Bearish on Fed Outlook and Yield Curve Inversion
Dollar was sold off broadly overnight, as dragged down by falling treasury yields. Also, recent comments from Fed officials continued to affirm the "patient" monetary policy stance. While the greenback is trying to recover in Asian session today, there is no clear follow through buying. The greenback will look...
Dollar Jumps as World Trade Outlook Worsened, Sterling Even Stronger
Sterling surges broadly in European session and it's trading as the strongest one for today so far. There is some support by slightly better than expected wage growth. Also, there could be some buying on expectation for the parliament to take over control on Brexit at a later stage,...
Dollar & Yen Recover as Markets Turn Cautious, US-China Trade Talks Resume Today
Dollar and Yen trade generally higher today as Asian markets turned mixed. The strong rally in Asian stocks yesterday was based on optimism on US-China trade negotiation. But such optimism has quickly turn into cautiousness. Another round of negotiation will start in Washington today, followed by high-level meeting later...
Euro and Sterling Strong for Today, But No Key Resistance Broken
Yen and Dollar are pressured for the whole day, and remain so in early US session. Risk appetite in Asian markets was boosted by optimism over US-China trade talks. There is hope that the meetings in Washington this week will eventually yield a memorandum of understanding of some sort,...
Asian Markets Boosted by Trade Optimism Again, Yen Broadly Lower
Yen remains the weakest one as another week starts with solid risk appetite. Sentiments towards US-China trade negotiation turned optimistic again after positive statements from both sides. Trump also hailed there were "big progress" during last week's meetings in Beijing. More talks are scheduled this week in Washington to...
US-China Trade Talks – Likely Extension of Trade Truce also Means Extension of Uncertainty and Market Volatility
We refrain from overtly optimistic over US-China trade negotiations. Following US officials’ Beijing trip which included a meeting with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday, both countries released their own statements. Yet, the tones of which suggested that discrepancies remain. While the market appears thrilled by the likely extension of...
Risk Appetite Boosted by Unknown Progress in US-China Trade Negotiation, More Talks Ahead
Trade talk optimism, trade pessimism, drove markets up and down last week. In the end, Presidents of US and China decided to give markets some lip service and boosted stocks towards weekly close. Words, rather than substance, are enough to make investors happy. Yen and Swiss Franc ended as...
US-China Trade Talks to Continue Next Week, Sentiments Lifted
Risk appetite seems to be given a lift again by words regarding US-China trade negotiations. There seems to be some consensuses and progress made even thought it's unsure what they exactly are. Nevertheless, at least, trade talks will resume next week in Washington, which is a positive sign. Yen...
Yen Strikes Back and Investors Dissatisfied With Lack of Trade Talk Progress
Yen is making a strong come back today and surges broadly. Investors are clearly unhappy with the lack of concrete progress with US-China trade negotiations. Sterling follows as the second strongest but it's just recovering some of this week's losses. Never-ending Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the Pound. Dollar...
China’s Inflation Weakened Sharply. Trade Improvement Masked by Seasonal Factor
Headline CPI eased to +1.7% y/y in January, missing consensus of and December’s +1.9%. The slowdown was mainly driven by food price which fell -0.6 percentage point to +1.9%. Non-food inflation steadied at +1.7%. PPI decelerated sharply to +0.1% y/y, from +0.9% a month ago. The market had already...
Dollar Dives as Retail Sales Dropped Most in 9-Years, But GBP and CAD Even Worse
Dollar suffers steep selloff in early US session after shockingly poor retail sales data. The release of December's sales was delayed due to government shutdown. And we've finally got some clues on how bad the US economy performed on double whammy on shutdown and trade war. Nevertheless, for now,...
BOJ Tapers? It’s Only Yield Curve Control Adjustment. Fragile Growth Outlook Despite Rebound in 4Q18
BOJ’s asset purchase activities have again caught market attention. Talks of tapering heightened last week as the central bank offered to buy 180B yen of 10- to 25-year JGBS. Concerns over a less accommodative monetary environment eased as the central bank offered to buy 430B yen of 5- to...
Japan & Germany Avoided Recession, Trade Talk Optimism, Yen Pressured
Australian and New Zealand Dollar are the strongest ones for today so far as the forex markets seem to be cheering positive developments in US-China trade negotiations. The idea of 60-day extension to trade truce is certainly welcomed given the complexity in the deal, in particular enforcement. Data from...
US Inventory Rose More than Expected. Yet, Crude Oil Price Strengthened on US-China Trade Hopes
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +6.53 mmb to 1265.51 mmb in the week ended February 8. Crude oil inventory added +3.63 mmb to 450.84 mmb (consensus: +2.67 mmb). Inventories increased in 3 out...