Dollar Surges Broadly on Earning Optimism, Gold Extends Decline
Dollar rises broadly in early US session as traders seem preparing for solid Q1 earnings reports in US. Stocks indices are relatively steady, though, with DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ up slightly in initial trading. But after all, improvement in the overall sentiments could revive the chance for a...
Forex Markets Tread Water as Impact of Oil Rally Fades
The forex markets remain relatively quiet in Asian session today. Canadian Dollar surged briefly yesterday as lifted by rally in oil price. WTI crude oil remains firm in at 65.80, after rising on news that US is ending Iranian oil sanction wavier for eight countries. But the boost to...
Canadian Dollar Pulled Higher by Oil, But Cautious ahead of BoC
Canadian Dollar open the week generally higher, as helped by strong rally in oil price, on supply concern. Though, the Loonie is generally bounded in range only. BoC rate decision and statement this week will be crucial to the next move. For now, risks are mildly on the upside...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Precious Metals Trimmed Markedly as Yields Soared
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -1 404 contracts to 515 258 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -5 656 contracts while shorts dropped -4 252. Oil price rally might continue after Easter...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short Increased in Safe- Haven Currencies as Risk Appetite Improved
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 16, NET LENGTH in USD Index decreased -508 contracts to 28 938. Both speculative long and short positions dropped during the week. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European currencies, NET...
Strong Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Boost Dollar, But Yen Outperforms
Dollar jumps broadly in early US session after very strong retail sales and jobless claims. Yen is the only one stronger than the greenback, thanks to pull back in global treasury yields. Euro, as well as benchmark German yield tumble as poor PMIs dent hope for a recovery in...
BOC to Look Through Strong March Inflation and Maintain Dovish Stance
At the BOC meeting next week, we expect Governor Stephen Poloz to reinstate the stance that the next policy rate move would be data-dependent. The latest inflation report surprised to the upside. Yet, the central bank would likely look through it as other data continued to show decelerating growth...
Eurozone PMIs, Retail Sales from UK, US and Canada Watched
Asian markets turned softer today, ahead of long weekend. Major indices are trading in slightly in red as traders lighten up positions. In the currency markets, Yen is so far the strongest one for today, naturally. Australian Dollar is the second strongest, as lifted slightly by solid employment data....
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Declined as Production and Imports Trimmed
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +7.22 mmb to 1229.13 mmb in the week ended April 12. Crude oil inventory surprisingly dropped -1.4 mmb to 455.15 mmb (consensus: +1.71 mmb). Inventories declined in 3...
Canadian Dollar Jumps on CPI, Treasury Yields Rise on China Data
Global treasury yields are boosted by solid data from China today. German 10-year yield hit at high as 0.104 and is now back at around 0.08. US 10-year yield breaches hit 2.614 and it's now trying to own 2.6 handle. These are both signs of improvements in market sentiments...
Aussie Lifted by Strong China Data, Kiwi Tumbles on CPI and RBNZ Bets
Australian and New Zealand Dollars have very different fortunes today. Aussie was boosted higher by stronger than expected Chinese data. On the other hand, Kiwi dived as weaker than expected CPI raises the chance of RBNZ rate cut at next meeting. In between, Euro is the second strongest so...
China First Quarter GDP Growth Beat Expectations. Key Macro Data Rebounded in March, albeit from Low Base
China’s GDP expanded +6.4% y/y in 1Q19, same pace as 4Q18 but beating consensus of +6.3%. Major macroeconomic data showed strong rebound in March and exceeded expectations. Over the past weeks, data flow in China has already signaled improvement in China’s economy: Both headline CPI and PPI markedly recovered...
Funds Flowing Out of Safe Haven Swiss Franc, Gold and Bonds
Funds are flowing out notably from safe haven assets today. Gold dives through 1280 handle and is resuming fall from 1346.71 high. German 10-year yield is up for another day at 0.067. US 10-year yield is also trading stronger at 2.575, possibly targeting 2.6 handle. In the currency markets,...
Australian Dollar Tumbles on Dovish RBA Minutes, New Zealand and Canadian Also Weak
Commodity currencies are generally under some selling pressure today. Australian Dollar is the weakest one as RBA took another step to laid the ground for rate cut by dovish minutes. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr reiterated the central bank's easing bias. Canadian Dollar was sold off overnight after poor Business...
RBA Minutes – Confirming Dovish Monetary Policy Stance. Low Inflation Raises the Chance of Rate Cut
While RBA had left the cash unchanged at 1.5% in April, the minutes for the meeting was closely-watched. Recall that the central bank turned more dovish as it acknowledged more downside risks to the growth outlook. The minutes reinforced this view. More importantly, the minutes affirmed that the central...
Forex Markets Turn Mixed as Risk Appetite Cools, More Inspirations Needed
The forex markets turn relatively mixed today and markets lack a general direction. Risk appetite appeared to be firm earlier in Asian session but quickly faded. Major US indices open the day mildly lower. While German 10-year yield is trading up at the time of writing, US 10-year yield...
Risk Appetite Lifted by More US-China Trade Optimism, Eurozone and China Data Watched This Week
Dollar trade mildly lower in Asian session after more verbal attack on Fed by Trump. Australian Dollar follows as second weakest, paring some of last week's gains. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the second strongest one, followed by Sterling. But after all, all major pairs and...
Yields Surged, Yen Tumbled on Receding Global Risks
The financial markets were generally dominated by positive sentiments last week. Major global economic risks seemed to be receding generally, even though some uncertainties remain. The development was best seen in the strong rally in treasury yields. US 10-year yield closed the week up 0.059 at 2.56, above 2.554...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD, EUR, GBP and NZD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 9, NET LENGTH in USD Index increased +598 contracts to 29 446. Both speculative long and short positions dropped as the market awaited the FOMC minutes. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Trades Bet Higher Prices in Crude Oil, Gold and Silver
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 9, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +35 301 contracts to 516 662 for the week. Speculative long positions rose +31 454 contracts while shorts dropped -3 847. Traders remained bullish as crude oil price...