Dollar opened the week mildly lower but appears to have found some footing in early European session. Trump is fighting trade wars on two fronts, at least. On the one hand, China has cleared stated its position for not backing down on some core issues, with a white paper...
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 28 shows that NET LENGTH in USD Index climbed higher, by +386 contracts, to 27 098. Both speculative long and short positions increased during the week. Traders continued to trim their bets on USD. Recent focus has returned...
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 28, Bearish sentiment was broadly-based in the energy market. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -39 460 contracts to 438 938 for the week. Speculative long positions plunged -21 546 contracts while shorts rose -17...
Free fall in major government yields extended, and accelerated last week. Meanwhile, it seemed that stocks investors finally woke up with sharply deteriorating sentiments. Major indices staged steep decline as risk aversion heightened. The first factor being the "ever-present" US-China trade tensions. Hard-line rhetorics from official media blossomed after...
Global financial markets are rocked by Trump's decision to use tariffs as a way to force Mexico to solve border security crisis of the US. 5% tariffs will be imposed in all Mexico imports to US starting June 10, then "gradually" as Trump claimed, go up to 25% on...
Risk aversion intensifies again today as Trump uses his one old tricky in tariffs again, but turned to Mexico. 5% tariffs will be imposed on all Mexican imports on June 10, and "gradually" move up to 25% in less than 4 months time if Mexico doesn't help on border...
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -1.57 mmb to 1285.49 mmb in the week ended May 24. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.28 mmb to 476.49 mmb (consensus: -0.86 mmb). Inventories rose in 3 out...
Dollar trades generally higher today as risk markets stabilized, partly helped by recovery in treasury yields too. Economic data from US generally matched expectations. Markets also shrugged off repeated comments from US and China regarding trade war. Though, at the time of writing, Canadian Dollar is the strongest one,...
Risk sentiments stabilized somewhat in Asian session today. While major Asian indices are down, losses are so far limited. Late buying in the US overnight argues that the markets are not in a crash yet despite all the talks on trade war escalation. DOW has indeed reached as low...
Despite BOC’s effort to temper the need of a rate cut, the market is obviously unconvinced. Market participants continue to price in about 30% chance of rate cut later this year and USDCAD surged to the highest level since January. The key message from the meeting is that the...
Risk aversion stays in the global financial markets today but it's not in the most intense state yet. A trigger for selloff in stocks and decline in yield is China's threat to squeeze supply of rare earths to the US as part of a countermeasures in trade war. However,...
Yen and Swiss Franc are finally showing some strength today. There was no special escalation in US-China relationship as the former refrained from naming the latter as currency manipulator. But recovery attempts in stocks were rather short lived. Selloff in stocks is in tandem with free fall in treasury...
The Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage emerges as the biggest party in the European Parliament, with 29 seats and 31.6% (up +31.6% from previously) of the votes across the 12 regions in the UK. Surge in votes was also seen in Liberal Democrats, a pro-EU party, and Greens,...
The forex markets are rather mixed today. Italy's budget clash with EU is clearly a concern of investors. Markets are anticipating the tension between Rome and Brussels to intensify with a penalty on breach of EU fiscal rules. Italian 10-year yield jumps sharply higher today while German 10-year yield...
The forex markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Risk sentiments firmed up mildly in Asia with gains seen in major indices. In particular, China's Shanghai SSE is back above 2900 handle with around 0.9% gain. The moves are reflect in strength in Australian, New Zealand and Canadian...
We expect BOC to stay put - leaving the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, at the upcoming meeting. Macroeconomic indicators released since the April meeting showed improvement. Governor Stephen Poloz said in an interview last week that interest rates are likely to still go up “a bit”, if recent...
After some initial weakness, Dollar surges broadly today after Trump admitted that he's not ready to make a deal with China yet. That overturned his repeated comments that a deal could happen soon. Instead, Trump opts for more verbal threats and warned tariffs could go up very substantially and...
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 21 shows that NET LENGTH in USD Index edged slightly higher, by +35 contracts, to 26 712. Both speculative long and short positions increased during the week. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions.
Concerning European...
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 21, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -9 410 contracts to 478 398 for the week. Speculative long positions slumped -22 000 contracts while shorts also plunged -12 590. Uncertainty of US-China trade war continued...
Sterling was the weakest one last week as it suffered persistent selloff ahead of UK Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement on resignation. The Pound has indeed stabilized since then after the speculation was realized. Without May, the Brexit path ahead becomes even more uncertain. The key lies on who...