Dollar Stays Weak as Expectation on Fed Cut Solidifies
Dollar weakens generally again today as remains the worst performing one for the week, on expectation of July Fed cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the decision could be based more on continuing uncertainties, rather than deterioration of outlook. New York Fed John Williams also hinted he...
Dollar Selloff Halts after Core CPI Acceleration, Not Sign of Rebound Yet
Dollar remains the weakest one for today even though selloff somewhat stabilized in early US session. Stronger than expected core CPI is providing some support to the greenback, together with job data. However, the question remains on whether Fed will deliver the "insurance" rate cut this month, due to...
Another Week of Withdrawal Sent Crude Oil Inventory to April’s Level
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks declined -3.78 mmb to 1303.57 mmb in the week ended July 4. Crude oil inventory slumped -9.5 mmb to 458.99 mmb (consensus: -3.08 mmb). Inventories rose in 4 out...
Fed Cut Expectation Hammers Dollar, Lifts Stocks, But Yen Also Jumps
Now, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, a July Fed cut is more like a done deal than not. Dollar tumbled broadly overnight and selloff continues today. Euro is the second weakest as ECB will likely be a step ahead of Fed to announce additional stimulus this month. June's...
Dovish FOMC Minutes Heighten the Case for July Rate Cut
The FOMC minutes for the June meeting maintained a dovish tone, paving the way for a Fed funds rate cut later this month. The member generally acknowledged downside risks to growth have intensified while heightened uncertainty, in particular in trade tensions, would pose negative impacts on business investment. Fed’s...
BOC Left Rate Unchanged at 1.75%. Cautious about Trade But Overall Tone Stays Neutral
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday and maintained a neutral tone. Policymakers turned more cautious about the impact of trade tensions on economic activities and noted that global interest rates have been lower over the past months. Yet, they acknowledged that domestic growth remained upbeat. While...
Dollar Drops as Powell Said Uncertainties Continue to Weigh on Outlook, Testimony Awaited
Dollar drops notably in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's prepared remains for the two day Congressional testimony which starts today. The greenback is currently the weakest one for today, followed by Yen and the Canadian. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest one, followed by...
Dollar Stays Firm ahead of Fed Powell’s Testimony, UK GDP & BoC Watched Too
Dollar remains the strongest one for the week even though upside momentum is diminishing today. The single most important factor for Dollar's next move is whether Fed would cut interest rate at this month's meeting. A 50bps cut is basically priced out by the markets, but futures still indicate...
Dollar Stays Firm as Fed Powell Offers No Rate Clue Yet, Sterling Weak
Dollar, Swiss Franc and Yen remain the strongest ones for today. Risk aversion mode was turned on in European session and is carried forward to US session. Investors are turning cautious as expectation for Fed rate cut this month is being adjusted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't comment on...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bulls Outweighs Bears in Canadian Dollar’s Outlook
For that first time since March 2018, CAD futures recorded NET LENGTH of 6 293 contracts, as suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 2. Recent bullish sentiment about the loonie has been driven by policy divergence. While the Fed is widely expected...
CFTC Commitments of Traders -Traders Bet Higher Crude Oil Price ahead of OPEC+ Meeting. Net Length Likely Drops in the Coming Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 2, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rose +14 007 contracts to 392 810 for the week. Speculative long positions jumped +16 239 contracts and shorts added +2 232 contracts. Crude oil prices continued recently ahead...
Australian Dollar Softer on Weak Business Confidence and Chinese Stocks
Following mild pull back in US equities overnight, Asian markets are mixed. Though, apparent weakness in China and Hong Kong stocks are dragging down Australian Dollar, which is the weakest one for today so far. Sterling is the next weakest as data showed retail sales suffered the worst June...
Euro Lower on Deteriorated Eurozone Investor Confidence
Euro trades broadly lower today as investor confidence deteriorated further despite slightly easing US-China trade tensions. German 10-year yield also weakens again following weaker investor sentiments, as German lender Deutsche Bank AG started its most aggressive restructuring and layoff. Sterling and Yen are also among the weakest ones. On...
Dollar Paring Gains as Focus Turns to Fed Powell’s Testimony and FOMC Minutes
Asian markets tumble broadly, partly as reactions to Japan's export controls on certain Korean semiconductor materials. Also, the weakness is partly due to adjustment in expectations on Fed's rate cut this month, after Friday's solid US job data. Though, the currency markets are steadily mixed. Yen is one of...
BOC Preview – Not Following Fed’s Footstep
BOC is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week, and for the rest of the year. Data flow since the last meeting has remained resilient, offering the central bank more room to take a wait and see mode and assess the economic developments. We believe...
Markets Still Believe in a July Fed Cut, But Powell Has the Last Chance to Correct It
Major global treasury yield tumbled sharply last week on expectations of policy easing by central banks. In particular, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn issued panic call for further monetary stimulus "now". German 10-year bund yield hit as low as -0.407, below ECB's -0.40% deposit rate. UK 10-year gilt...
Dollar Rebounds as Strong NFP Puts Fed Cut into Question
Dollar rebound strongly today after much better than expected job data. 10-year yield also jumps sharply and is currently up 0.083 at 2.022, back above 2% level. DOW futures, on the other hand, tumble notably. Analysts reactions regarding to the data are divided. Some are more aligned with fed...
Dollar Recovers Mildly as NFP Awaited, Could It Deter Fed’s Cut?
Dollar recovers mildly today as US markets will be back from holiday. But understandably, upside momentum is rather weak so far as the crucial non-farm payroll report is awaited. Overall trading is mixed this week, as some technical level are not firmly take out, even breached. For example, Gold...
German 10-Yr Yield Hits Record Low on ECB Easing Expectations
Trading in the currency markets are relatively subdued today as US is on holiday. Major volatility is seen in the bond markets, as German 10-year yield hits another record low. Expectations on ECB easing continues to intensify, with an official explicitly calling for action now. Swiss Franc is currently...
Market Quiet in Holiday Mood, Aussie and Canadian Firm
The forex markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Trading is rather subdued with US markets on holiday. But volatility will definitely come back with job data tomorrow. For the week, Canadian Dollar is currently the strongest one but USD/CAD is still struggling take out last week's firmly....