CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Crude Oil Futures Gained Most in Three Months
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +33 613 contracts to 423 762 for the week. Speculative long positions surged +39 788 contracts and shorts were up +6 175 contracts. For refined oil products, NET...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD as Fed Funds Rate Cut Approaches
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +276 contracts to 27 332. Speculative long positions slid -27 contracts while short positions dropped -303 contracts during the week.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
Canadian Dollar Dives on Retail Sales Miss, Euro Also Weak
Canadian Dollar drops sharply in early US session after big disappointment from retail sales data. The Loonie is currently trading as the weakest one for today. Euro is following as the second weakest as markets increases bet on ECB rate cut. Money markets are pricing in around 60% of...
Dollar Dives as Dovish Fedspeaks Reinforce Rate Cut Bets
Dollar stabilizes in Asian session after steep decline overnight. Bets on Fed's rate cut this month jumped after dovish comments from some key Fed officials. It seems that Fed might choose not to listen to the solid economic data released recently, but opt for the path of insurance. Treasury...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing and Job Data, Euro Even Worse
Manufacturing and job data released the US are pretty solid. But dollar shrugs off and stays soft. Though, Euro is even weaker on rumor that ECB is considering to revamp their inflation target, which could give policymakers rooms to pursue monetary stimulus for longer. Canadian Dollar is also among...
Dollar Back Under Pressure, Yen Jumps on Falling Yields
Dollar is back under pressure following weakness in US stocks and yields overnight. But it remains largely in range, except versus Yen. Indeed, Yen buying seems to be picking up momentum again, in tandem with steep decline in Nikkei in Asian session. But risk aversion is having little impact...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell, While Fuel Stockpile Gained
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks jumped +11.66 mmb to 1315.23 mmb in the week ended July 12. Crude oil inventory declined -3.12 mmb to 455.88 mmb (consensus: -2.69 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...
Markets Mixed as Inflation Data Provide No Guidance
The forex markets are generally locked in tight range today. Canadian Dollar is supported by largely expected consumer inflation data. While Loonie is the second strongest for today so far, USD/CAD is stuck in familiar range. The markets are indeed rather mixed, as seen in New Zealand Dollar being...
Dollar Maintains Gain as Focus Turns to CPI from UK, EZ and Canada
Dollar turns into consolidation in Asian session but it's able to maintain most of this week's gain. The greenback's fate remains heavily dependent on whether Fed will cut interest rates later in the month. Strong economic data so far argue against a move. Yet, it seems they're not strong...
Dollar Rebounds on Retail Sales, Sterling Shrugs Solid Job Data
Dollar rebound strongly in early US session, with support from strong retail sales data. Though, upside is somewhat capped by industrial production miss. Canadian Dollar is, instead, the strongest one. On the other hand, Sterling is the weakest one for today despite solid employment data. UK unemployment rate stayed...
RBA’s July Minutes – Cutting Rate to Weaken Aussie and Lower Unemployment Rate
RBA’s minutes for the July meeting revealed that the objective for lowering interest rate in July again was bringing down the unemployment rate and lowering the exchange rate. Unlike the June minutes, the central bank had not hinted more rate cuts would come in the near-term. Yet, we do...
UK Employment, German ZEW and US Retail Sales Watched
New Zealand Dollar strengthens broadly today after CPI picked up in Q2. On the other hand, Australian Dollar trades slightly softer after RBA minutes affirmed easing bias. Euro and Dollar strengthen mildly in Asian session. But both will face tests from economic data, including US retail sales and German...
Dollar Shrugs Solid Manufacturing Data, Sterling Leads Euro Lower
Commodity currencies remain the strongest ones for today with help from mild risk appetite. Dollar is trying to recover on stronger than expected manufacturing data, but no follow through buying is seen yet. The greenback will need more positive data release to offset recent selling pressure. On the other...
Chinese Economy Weakest in Almost Three Decades. Growth Could Fall Below 6% by Year-End.
GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter's +6.9%. For the first half of the year, the economy expanded +6.3%.
Growth...
Australian Dollar Higher on China Data, More Important Global Data Ahead
Markets are in mild risk seeking mode in Asian session, following record run in the US. China's GDP data slowed to 27-year low in Q2, but strong June data offered glimpse of hope. New Zealand and Australian Dollar follow the trend and strength today. Yen and Swiss Franc soften...
Dollar Reversed, Stocks Made New Records on as Fed Cut Expectations Solidified
Dollar's fortune reversed again last week as expectations of Fed July rate cut re-intensified. Such expectations also pushed US equities to new record highs. However, global equities lagged behind, with major FTSE, CAC and Nikkei closed inside prior week's range. DAX even dropped sharply. Also, 10-year and 30-year US...
China’s Strong Trade Surplus Driven by Contraction in Imports. Strong Inflation Unlikely Restrains Further Easing
China headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.7% y/y in June. Most of the increase was driven by food price. While African swine fever has caused pork price to soar, extreme weather affected harvest, sending fruit price higher. Food price jumped +7.7% in May from a year ago. Excluding food...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Resumed Bets on Higher USD as Rate Cut Priced In
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 9, NET LENGTH in USD Index jumped +4 639 contracts to 27 056. Speculative long positions gained +2 982 contracts while short positions fell -1 657 contracts during the week. Traders raised long bets but...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Oil and Gold Prices Dropped
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 9, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -2 661 contracts to 390 149 for the week. Speculative long positions dropped -7 484 contracts and shorts were down -4 823 contracts. For refined oil products, NET...
Euro Turns Soft, Ignoring Strong Industrial Production and Rebound in German Yield
While Dollar remains the worst performing one for the week, Euro is overtaking as the weakest one for today. Selloff in crosses, in particular in EUR/CHF, is dragging down the common currency. Much stronger than expected industrial production data was ignored. Instead, it's clear that ECB is on track...