FOMC Preview – Expecting -25 bps Cut From a Divided Fed
We expect the Fed to announce a rate cut of -25 bps, bringing the Fed funds rate target to 2-2.25%, this week. Yet, this decision is unlikely unanimous. Although there has been voice suggesting a deeper cut is needed, we do not it will happen this month. The plan...
Fed Rate Cut Still Expected after Solid Data, But Dollar Could Rally Further After That
Dollar ended as the strongest one last week as boosted by solid economic data from the US. While markets are still pricing in full chance of a Fed rate cut this week, strong data argue against the chance of further easing after that. Euro and Canadian Dollar were the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Raised Bets for Higher Precious Metal Prices
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended July 24, NET LENGTH for gold futures gained +5 749 contracts to 251 250. Speculative long positions rose +2 346 contracts, while shorts fell -3 403. For silver futures, speculative long positions rose +9 680 contracts while...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gains in Long Bets Narrowly Outweighed Shorts ahead of Fed’s Rate Cut
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 24, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +1 796 contracts to 29 128. Speculative long positions gained +5 766 contracts while short positions added +3 970 contracts during the week.
Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for...
Dollar Jumps on Strong Q2 GDP, Yet to Break Key Resistance
Dollar rises notably in early US session after stronger than expected US GDP data. The solid data rises further question on whether Fed would really cut interest rate next week. Even so, a -50bps cut is basically out of question. The greenback is followed by Yen and the Euro....
Japan- Korea Trade Tensions – Removal of Preferential Treatment to Korea Signals Trade Tension Should Escalate
As trade tensions between Japan and Korea evolve, the latest development is that Japan is preparing to remove Korea from its “white list”. Countries in the list can enjoy preferential treatment on trade with minimum retractions. The move marks escalation after Japan imposed control measures for exports of three...
Dollar Cautiously Firm As GDP Awaited, Euro Recovery Lost Steam
Dollar turns mixed in Asian session today but remains the strongest one for the week. Recent economic data from US, including yesterday's durable goods orders, have been solid, and raised some doubts on the need for Fed easing. Sterling is currently the second strongest for the week, followed by...
ECB Review – Hinting Easing Without Giving Details
The July ECB meeting aims at preparing the market for further easing in September. As expected, the members hinted that interest rate could fall to lower level. They also discussed about the possibility of restarting QE and the two-tiered interest rate system. The announcement was not without surprise. The...
Euro Rebounds after Initial Selloff, ECB Opens Door to Rate Cut But Seems Not Urgent
After initial selloff, Euro quickly rebounds as ECB Mario Draghi's press conference is not as dovish as the statement suggests. September ECB decision could be live, depending on upcoming economic projections. For now, Euro is the strongest one for today, followed by Sterling. Dollar is the third strongest, supported...
Euro Stays Weak as Markets Await Dovish ECB Hold
Monetary easing from central banks remain a major background theme in the markets. Euro is sold off this week as markets are preparing for dovishness from ECB today. While immediate policy action is not envisaged, President Mario Draghi is expected to explicitly set the stage for some announcement next...
US Crude Oil Inventory Slumped Last Week
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -6.687 mmb to 1308.54 mmb in the week ended July 19. Crude oil inventory slumped -10.84 mmb to 445.04 mmb (consensus: -4.01 mmb). Inventories fell in 4 out...
Euro Dives as PMIs Solidify Case for ECB Easing
Euro tumbles sharply today as poor PMI data solidifies the case for ECB easing ahead. The central bank is not expected to act tomorrow yet, but some form of indications would likely be provided by President Mario Draghi, on what stimulus would be adopted. For now, Australian Dollar is...
Aussie Falls on RBA Rate Cut Expectations, Euro Soft ahead of PMIs
The financial markets somewhat decouple in Asian session today. Australian Dollar is sold off broadly while Yen strengthens, Yet it's has nothing to do with risk appetite with Asian equity indices generally higher. Aussie's weakness is mainly due to RBA rate expectations following poor PMIs. In particular, sharp deterioration...
Brexit Update – New PM, Old Challenge
UK’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson has about 3 months to deliver Brexit. With the EU reiterating refusal to amend the Withdrawal Agreement (the deal), Johnson should face the same challenge as his predecessor, Theresa May. We continue to expect Brexit with a deal, as the composition of the...
Dollar Extends Rebound, Sterling Soft after Brief Recovery
Sterling has a very brief recovery today after Boris Johnson reaches the most important checkpoint to become the next UK prime minister. But the Pound quickly lost momentum and is back under pressure. Though, for now, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Euro, then Sterling. On...
Dollar Rises in Mixed Markets, Resumes Rally Against Euro
Dollar strengthens broadly today and breaks near term support against Euro. There is no clear sign of strength in other pairs yet. More is needed to the greenback to prove itself. Meanwhile, markets remain relatively mixed elsewhere. Canadian Dollar is the strongest yet New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar...
Dollar Lacks Direction While US-China Trade Meeting Said to Resume
The forex markets are generally mixed today in rather quiet trading. Dollar lacks a clear direction despite rumors that US and China trade teams are going finally meet to resume negotiations. Canadian Dollar is currently the weakest one, followed by Sterling, and then Yen. On the other hand, New...
ECB Preview – Expecting Change in Forward Guidance and Hints on QE Resumption and Tiering
We expect ECB to implement more easing measures to stimulate the economy, and the timing would likely be in September. The July meeting, scheduled later this week, would be used to prepare the market further the easing package. Over the past month, ECB has sent strong signals that a...
Sterling in Focus in a Light Day, ECB and US GDP ahead
Asian markets are trading generally lower today as another weak starts. Though, weakness in stocks is relatively limited. Expectations on Fed and ECB easing remain generally firm. It looks like a matter of when and how much easing only. In the currency markets, Yen is trading mildly lower, followed...
Sterling Might Bottom While Euro Would Stay Pressured, Dollar Indecisive
Sterling, Dollar and Euro were the major focuses last week as they took turn in suffering selloffs. The Pound was pressured by increasing worries over no-deal Brexit. While it ended the week as the weakest one, late recovery argues that the worst could be past for Sterling for the...