Sterling Rally in Jeopardy after Johnson’s Defeat, Dollar Selloff Exaggerated
Sterling surged broadly last week after as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson struck a new deal with EU on Brexit. It appeared that UK was on track to leave EU on October 31 in an orderly way. The development also took other European majors higher. However, uncertainty re-surfaced as...
Sterling Consolidates ahead of Crucial Brexit Votes, Dollar Soft
Sterling remains steady today as traders are all holding their bets ahead of tomorrow's crucial vote on the new Brexit withdrawal agreement. Canadian Dollar follows as second weakest as oil price recovery cannot gather momentum. On the other hand, New Zealand and Australian Dollars firm up mildly. Over the...
Markets Shrug Poor China GDP, Aussie and Kiwi Firm
Australian and New Zealand Dollar are slightly firmer in Asian session today despite Chinese GDP miss. The stronger than expected industrial production growth ease some concerns over worse slowdown in Q4. Meanwhile, Sterling continues to consolidation in tight range, digesting this week's strong gains. The Pound's fate will heavily...
Oil Inventory – Market Ignored Huge Jump in US Stockpile
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -1.59 mmb to 1286.81 mmb in the week ended October 11. Crude oil inventory jumped +9.28 mmb to 434.85 mmb (consensus: +2.88 mmb). Inventories increased in ALL PADDs....
Sterling’s Brexit Optimism Knocked Down by DUP Rejection, Dollar Drops on More Data Misses
Sterling is having a roller-coaster ride today. It's firstly boosted by news that EU and UK has finally agreed to a new Brexit deal. However, the Pound was then quickly knocked down as Northern Ireland's DUP expressed rejection to it. It seems Brexit drama is not going to end...
Australian Dollar Lifted by Fall in Unemployment Rate, Sterling Still Waiting for Brexit Deal
Australian Dollar rises broadly today as dip in unemployment rate should significantly lower the chance of another imminent RBA rate cut next month. Though, upside is so far limited as the central bank is still on easing course. Sterling is digesting recent gains as markets await a Brexit deal...
Brexit Update – Hurdle is Still High in the Parliament
Hopes of a Brexit deal have once again lifted sterling. The latest optimism came after the “breakthrough” meeting between UK PM Boris Johnson and Irish PM Taoiseach Varadkar. The latter suggested he saw a“pathway to a deal” which could be achieved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, EU...
Dollar Shrugs Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Continues to Await Brexit Deal
Sterling is attempting to resume recent rally even though there is no clear break through in Brexit negotiations yet. European Council President Donald Tusk said it may take another seven to eight hours before knowing when Brexit may happen. As news and rumors come in, we may seen more...
Sterling Firm as Brexit Deal is Near, Inflation Data Watched
Pound stays generally firm in Asian session after yesterday's rally. UK and EU are getting closer to a Brexit deal and further progress could give Sterling another punch above. As for today, Yen and Swiss Franc are mildly firmer together with dollar. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollars...
Sterling Firmer in Tight Range, Yen Mildly Higher as US-China Trade Deal Back in Question
Commodity currencies are generally softer today, as led by New Zealand Dollar. Euro also turned softer despite slightly better than expected German ZEW economic sentiment. US-China trade deal appears to be in question again, but reactions are so far mild. On the other hand, Sterling appears to be slightly...
Strong Inflation Could Affect PBOC’s Policy to Stimulate Growth; Trade Data Suggests China Continues to Suffer from Trade War
Headline CPI in China rose to +3% y/y in September, reaching PBOC’s target for first time since December 2013. However, this was driven by elevated pork price rather than improvement in household spending. Food price jumped +11.2%, accelerating from +10% in August. This was predominantly driven by pork price...
Australian Dollar Steady after RBA Minutes, Markets Staying in Tight Range
The forex markets are staying in tight range in Asian session today. More clarity is needed regarding two of the biggest global risks, before traders commit more. It's unlikely for a Brexit deal to be reached at the EU summit this week. And it's reported that EU could hold...
RBA Minutes – Sending Dovish Message by Rebuking Arguments in Favor of Keeping Rates Unchanged
In the minutes for the October meeting, RBA revealed the debate for the -25 bps rate cut. The key reasons for lowering the policy rate to 0.75% are disappointing employment and inflation data, as well as downside risk to global economic outlook. These outweighed the arguments for staying put,...
Yen, Swiss and Dollar Higher as Markets Rethink US-China Deal in Holiday Trading
Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar continue to regain some grounds today as markets reassess US-China trade negotiations developments. New Zealand Dollar, Sterling and Australian Dollar are generally softer too. But overall trading is rather subdued with Japan, US and Canada on holiday. Today's price actions are, for now, generally...
Markets Higher But Cautiously Await Brexit and US-China Trade Developments
Asian markets opened higher but there is no clear follow through buying so far. Investors are cautiously assessing the overall developments. Nothing is done until everything is done. Even if, unlike last time, China puts all agreed into texts, it just means no more tariffs escalations at best. Much...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets for Higher Gold and Silver Prices Increased
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -34 234 contracts to 355 085 for the week. Speculative long positions added +5 454 contracts while shorts jumped +39 688 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
US-China Trade Deal and Brexit Optimism Lifted Sentiments
Global markets were boosted strongly last week as there seemed to be resolution to two major risks finally. UK and Ireland appeared to have found the "pathway" to avoid no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, US and China agreed an interim trade deal that would avert further tariffs escalation. The improvement in...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Both Sides for USD
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 8, NET LENGTH in USD Index declined -3 169 contracts to 39 859. Speculative long positions fell -3 591 contracts and short positions slipped -422 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures jumped...
Sterling Skyrockets on Brexit Optimism, Canadian Jumps on Job Data
Sterling is overwhelmingly the strongest one on optimism that UK will finally reach a deal with EU for an orderly Brexit. EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is said to be given greenlight for tunnel discussions, paving the way for next week's crucial EU summit. Canadian Dollar is currently...
Sentiments Lifted by Optimism on Brexit and US-China Trade Talks
Sentiments had a drastic turn yesterday as both Brexit and US-China trade talks appeared to show some lights. Sterling rebounded strongly on hope there would finally be a deal to orderly Brexit on October 31. The Pound is set to end the week as the strongest one. Euro is...