Euro Collapsed on Coronavirus Spillover Fears, Next Two Weeks Crucial
While China's Wuhan coronavirus outbreak remained a major focus last week and triggered much volatility. But overall, stocks investors seemed not too bothered, with US indices continuing record runs. Other major markets are mixed only FTSE and Nikkei ended the week lower only. Gold closed higher but is well...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Consolidates at High Level as Safe-Haven Demand Increases
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 11. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slipped -605 contracts to 396 769 for the week. Speculative long positions added +238 contracts while shorts gained +843 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline added...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Weak Economic Developments in Eurozone Drove Euro Lower
Weakness in Eurozone's economic data has led traders to trim bets on higher euro but raise short bets for further decline. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 11, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +2 353 contracts to 19 486. Speculative...
Dollar Mixed after Shrugging Off Retail Sales, Euro Trying to Recover
Economic data released today are generally ignored by the markets. Dollar is mixed, paying little attention to US retail sales. Euro recovers mildly today on short profit taking ahead of weekend. But it remains the weakest one for the week. Swiss Franc and Yen are trading as the next...
Euro Selloff Deepens on Growth Concern, No Sign of Bottoming Yet
Euro remains the weakest one for the week as selloff deepens. It seems that markets believe the coronavirus outbreak in China would hurt Eurozone's economy more, in particular the export led German economy. Optimism of recovery this year is dented. Swiss Franc is somewhat dragged down by the common...
Risk Off Again as China Reports Confusingly Large Wuhan Coronavirus Cases, Sterling Jumps on Cabinet Shuffle
Global stock markets tumble today after China reported a strong daily increase of 15152 Wuhan coronavirus cases on February 12. That was a huge difference from 2015 new cases reported for a day ago. However, the mass difference was due to change in counting method in Hubei province, which...
Major Oil Agencies Downgrade Global Oil Demand Outlook amidst Coronavirus Outbreak
Oil agencies revised lower forecasts for global oil demand, with the outbreak of coronavirus being the key factor. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that world oil demand will increase +1.02% to 101.74M bpd this year and then by +1.49% to 103.26M bpd in 2021. These figures were...
Euro Breaks Key Support Against Dollar, More Broad Based Weakness Likely
Dollar surges to highest level against Euro as helped by rebound in US treasury yields overnight, as well as extended record runs in stocks. Nevertheless, sentiments in Asian turn back into risk-off mode, Yen and Swiss Franc are outshining the greenback for today. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are...
US Crude Oil Inventory Gained Much More than Expected
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -1.01 mmb to 1293.49 mmb in the week ended February 13. Crude oil inventory soared +7.46 mmb (consensus: +2.99 mmb) to 442.47 mmb. Stockpile rose in 4 out...
Dollar Weakens Further as Markets Remains Risk On
Risk appetite stays strong in the global markets, with European indices registering solid gains. US futures also point higher open for extending recent record runs. Yen is under some selling pressure today, together with Dollar and Euro. On the other hand, commodity currencies are generally higher, with Kiwi being...
Kiwi Surges after RBNZ, Risk Markets Rally on Coronavirus Containment Hope
New Zealand Dollar surges broadly today after RBNZ's hawkish hold. Other commodity currencies follow as risk appetite returns to the markets, on hope that China's coronavirus outbreak would peak soon. US stock indices also hit new records after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's affirmative comments. While Dollar turns softer, there...
RBNZ’s Next Move could be Rate Hike
RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1%. Yet, its message came in less dovish than expected. The members were upbeat about the employment situation and inflation. While coronavirus would affect domestic economy, the impact would be short-lived. Policymakers project GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of the...
Risk Appetite Firm as Markets Await Fed Powell, Dollar Mixed in Consolidation
Yen and Swiss are trading generally softer today as risk markets pick up some momentum again. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies higher. Dollar is mixed for the moment, awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. Rally in stock markets could extend if Powell affirms...
Sentiments Lifted as Fed Officials Assure Rates to Stay Low, Dollar Softens Mildly
Market sentiments are generally calm in Asia, which follow US equities higher. Investors were assured by Fed officials that interest rate is going to stay low at current level for a while. Commodity currencies are recovering today, with Aussie leading the way, even though upside remains rather limited. Yen...
Dollar Extending Rally Against Euro and Canadian
Global financial markets are in mild risk averse mode today but movements are limited. Dollar is lifted by renewed buying in early US session, and it's extending recent rally against Euro and Canadian Dollar. Strength against other major currencies is not apparent yet. In particular, Sterling is currently the...
Soaring Inflation Makes PBOC’s Easing Measures More Challenging
Headline inflation in China soared to +5.4% y/y, the highest level in almost a decade, in January. This came in higher than consensus of +4.9% and December’s +4.5%. Once again food, especially pork, price was the key driver of the jump. Food price soared +20.6% y/y, accelerating from +17.4%...
Markets Mildly Lower as Coronavirus Death Tolls Break 900
Asian markets trade mildly lower as China's coronavirus continues to spread. But losses in major indices are so far limited. In the currency markets, commodity currencies are trading to recovery some of last week's losses, together with Sterling. Yen and Dollar turn weaker despite mild risk aversion. But major...
RBNZ to Leave OCR Unchanged at 1% and Warn of Risks Associated with Coronavirus
RBNZ is widely expected to leave the OCR unchanged at 1%. Upbeat economic developments since the November meeting should warrant removal of easing bias in February. However, outbreak of coronavirus from China suggests that risks to global growth are greatly skewed to the downside. This should cause the members...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Took Profit after Recent Gold Price Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 4. NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -64 388 contracts to 397 374 for the week. Speculative long positions fell -11 338 contracts while shorts rose +53 050 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Uncertainty of Novel Coronavirus Continued to Support Safe Haven Currencies
Novel coronavirus has shown no signs of abating. The latest statistics indicate that the number of confirmed cases has increased to above 30 000 and casualty to over 800 in China. The epidemic has affected at least 28 countries in the world. Against this backdrop, safe-haven currencies outperformed risky...