Fed’s Emergency Cut Reveals the Lack of Tools to Deal with Corona-Crisis
The Fed implemented an emergency rate cut of -50 bps on Tuesday, just two weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled on March 18. The Fed funds rate range now stands at 1-1.5%. While the move is not entirely surprising, given Chair Jerome Powell’s statement last Friday and Goldman...
Markets Steady While G7 Pledges Policy Response to Coronavirus Outbreak
The financial markets generally stabilized today even though global coronavirus outbreak shows no signs of slowing down. Total global cases reach 92725, with 5186 in South Korea, 2336 in Iran, 2036 in Italy, 283 in Japan, 191 in France, 188 in Germany, 152 in Spain, 110 in Singapore and...
RBA Cut Rate to 0.5%, Being the First Central Bank to Ease Due to Coronavirus
RBA becomes the first central bank to cut interest rate in light of the negative impacts from the coronavirus outbreak. The central bank lowered the cash rate by -25 bps to 0.50% in March, expected to ease further in the near future. As revealed in the accompanying statement, the...
Aussie Steady after RBA Rate Cut, World Prepares for Coronavirus Measures
US stocks staged a massive rebound overnight, with DOW closed up over 5%. But reactions in other markets are muted. Strength in Asian markets is very limited even though major indices are in black. Gold is gyrating in tight range around 1600 handle. WTI crude oil struggles to gain...
Bets of BOC Rate Cut Increased as Domestic Growth Loses Steam while Coronavirus Gets More Worrying
The market has priced in a 60% chance of a BOC rate cut this week, up from virtually 0% two weeks ago. While moderation in domestic growth has suggested that further easing is likely, the coronavirus outbreak and its impact have the potential to push forward the rate cut...
Euro Rally Accelerates, But Surging Coronavirus Cases in Europe Poses Downside Risks
Euro's rally accelerates today, in particular against Dollar and took out an important near term fibonacci resistance. There are various explanations on Euro's strength. Considering the strength in Swiss Franc, as well as the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, the rally could be seen a manifestation of safe haven flow.
Meanwhile,...
China’s PMIs Dived in February, Just First Glimpse of the Disastrous Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak
China’s PMIs slumped to the lowest on record in February. Both the official and Caixin’s reports show that China’s economic activities were severely hurt by the coronavirus outbreak. Since the number of infected cases spiraled in late January, the Chinese government has implemented measures to control the spread of...
Markets Digesting Wild Moves as Global Coronavirus Spread Extends, China Shrugs off Poor Data
The financial markets are pretty steady in Asian session today, digesting some of last week's wide moves. Asian markets are generally higher today, in particular, Chinese stocks shrug off poor PMI data and rebounded strongly. Gold is pressing 1600 handle, recovering mildly, while WTI oil is also back above...
Stocks & Gold Crashed as Coronavirus Pandemic is Near, Traders See Fed Cut -50bps in march
The world got one big step closer to Wuhan coronavirus pandemic with explosion of number of cases outside China in the past last week. South Korea (3150 cases, 16 deaths), Italy (888 cases, 21 deaths) and Iran (388 cases, 34 deaths) are now the new epicenters, while Japan (235...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders to Bet USD Index Futures Lower as Fed might Cut Rate by -50 bps bps in 2 Weeks
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 25, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +849 contracts to 26 077. Speculative long positions dropped -638 contracts and short positions declined -1 487 contracts. Bets on both sides obviously shrank as the market pondered...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Long Bets in Gold Futures as Price Rallied to Highest since 2013
Falling for the first time in 3 weeks, NET LENGTH for gold futures declined -17 784 contracts to 335 865. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 25, speculative long positions plunged -19 010 contracts, while shorts decreased -1 226 contracts. Gold price...
RBA to Keep Powder Dry Next Week, Could Push Forward Rate Cut to April
RBA is expected to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% in March. However, disastrous coronavirus outbreak in China is expected to hurt Australia's economy, triggering the members to push forward further easing in as soon as April. Indeed, the market has priced in 60% chance of a rate...
No End in Sight For Global Coronavirus Outbreak and Stock Market Crash
There is no end in sight for the global stock market crash yet, not for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. South Korea (2337 cases, 14 deaths), Italy (605 cases, 17 deaths) and Iran (388 cases, 34 deaths) are the new epicenter and situations keep worsening. In the currency markets, selloff...
Stock Rout Continues, Fed Cut Odds Surged on Coronavirus Pandemic Fears
Risk aversion on fear of Wuhan coronavirus pandemic continues to be the main theme in the financial markets. DOW lost over -1000 pts overnight as it's suffering one of the worst weeks in history. 10-year and 30-year yield hit new record lows. Asian markets naturally follow with all major...
Euro Surges as Markets Reprice Coronavirus Impacts, Risk Aversion Continues
Global stock market crash on fear of Wuhan coronavirus pandemic continues today, while treasury yields are pressured too. Euro and Swiss Franc are currently the strongest ones. There are a couple of explanations, like safe haven flows out of US, due to free fall in stocks, as well as...
Losing Safe-Haven Status, Japanese Yen Weakens Despite Rising Global Uncertainty
Despite the recovery over the past few days, Japanese yen has still lost -1.6% against US dollar in the first 3 weeks of February. This phenomenon is puzzling as JPY, as traditional safe-haven currency, usually strengthens as global uncertainty and risk aversion intensify. There are a number of reasons...
Euro Gaining Upside Momentum While Coronavirus Fears Persist
Global coronavirus outbreak remain the main theme but markets are having kind of different reactions. US stocks extended this week's steep decline overnight, down selling pressure seemed to have eased a bit. Nikkei is leading Asian markets low but Chinese stocks are relatively resilient. In the currency markets, commodity...
Dollar Firmer after Hitting Support, While Risk Aversion Eases Mildly
Risk aversion continues today but selloff in the stock markets seem to be easing a bit, with major European indices off lows at the time of writing. Global coronavirus outbreak remains the main focus, with South Korea's cases surge again to 1261, with 12 deaths. Cases in Italy rose...
Aussie Tumbles as Risk Aversion Continues on Global Coronavirus Pandemic Fear
Risk aversion continues in Asian session today, following the worst 2-day percentage drop in DOW in two years. Nevertheless, panic is no spreading to other markets so far. Gold is staying in consolidation below 7-year high of 1689, currently hovering around 1645. In the currency markets, Australian is currently...
Markets in Digestion Mode, Awaiting Next Coronavirus Development
Global financial markets turned mixed today, digesting yesterday's steep selloff. Investors are holding their bets again, awaiting next development regarding global outbreak of China's Wuhan coronavirus. There is no sign of a sustainable recovery European stocks, but US futures point to higher open. In the currency markets, Sterling is...