Aussie Gained as RBA Hinted the Possibility of Easing the Pace of QE
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% in April. This is following two emergency rate cuts (50 bps in total) a month ago. The central bank pledged to maintain the stimulus measures announced last month for combating the coronavirus pandemic. Aussie gained after the announcement...
Aussie Follows Stocks Higher, While RBA Stands Pat
Australian dollar jumps broadly today after RBA kept monetary policies unchanged as widely expected. Aussie is additionally helped by the strong rally in US stocks overnight, even though the rise in Asia markets is relatively muted. Also, China, the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, is set to end the...
Stocks Rebound as Germany Prepares Lockdown Exit But Japan Readies State of Emergency
Global stocks strength in general as major coronavirus epicenters seem to be starting to flatten the curve. It's reported that Germany is even planning for lockdown exit. However, it remains uncertain when this coronavirus pandemic is going to end, and the world would return to normal. Risk in second...
Markets Recover Mildly as Coronavirus Deaths Slow, But Sterling Weak
Asian markets are trading up mildly as the week starts, after coronavirus deaths in New York State fell for the first time. Italy also reported the fewest deaths in more than two weeks. However, investors remain cautious as it's still almost impossible to forecast the full impact of the...
Dollar Jumped as Markets Started Q2 With Risk Aversion, But Oil Rebounded
The financial markets didn't start the second quarter with a bang even though coronavirus pandemic carried on. Globally, confirmed cases surged through 1.1m level but that's now more of an indication of the speed of tests. Death toll, on the other hand, remains worrying as it broke 60k handle...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bet on Higher Euro should Fade as Data in Eurozone Disappoint
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 31, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +1 545 contracts to 14 065. Speculative long positions added +496 contracts and short positions dropped -1 049 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures jumped...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Oil Price Could Increase Temporary on Output Cut Speculations
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 31, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures dropped -905 contracts to 435 108 for the week. Speculative long positions rose +46 031 contracts while shorts jumped +46 936 contracts. Bets for higher crude oil prices could...
Dollar Remains Firm, Markets Unmoved by Scary NFP
While the US continues to post scary job numbers, the markets couldn't care less. Investors know the numbers would be bad and it doesn't matter how bad they are. The point is, there has to be an end to the coronavirus pandemic, which originated from China. Otherwise, the economy...
Oil Rally likely Short-lived as Coordinated Output Cut Could Take Long to Materialize
Crude oil prices rebounded yesterday, on speculations that Saudi Arabia and Russia might agree to cut output. Donald Trump noted on Twitter that he expects that Saudi Arabia and Russia will reduce oil production by “approximately 10M bpd, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT...
Dollar Firm as NFP Awaited, Euro Broadly Weak
Dollar is currently trading as the strongest one for the week, followed by Yen. On the other hand, Euro and Swiss Franc are both the weakest ones for now. Overall sentiments in the market are mildly risk averse but there is no committed move. Oil price was given a...
Muted Reactions to Jobless Claims, Dollar Picking Up Some Buying, Euro Weak
It seems that the markets are not having a clue on what to do next. While US initial jobless claims doubled to 6.6m, reactions are rather muted. DOW futures are staying positive for now, while European indices are mixed. Dollar seems to be picking up some buying after the...
Manufacturing PMI and Inflation in the Eurozone Reveal that Eurozone is Approaching Recession
Latest indicators for virus-haunted Eurozone’s economic developments suggest that the region is very close to recession. While accelerating QE, ECB refrained from lowering the policy rate March. We expect it would be obliged to do so in April. Meanwhile, coordinated fiscal action by the European Commission might be needed...
Dollar and Yen Rally Still Lack Conviction, Range Trading Continues
US stocks suffered the worst start to a quarter in history overnight. But Asian markets are generally steady after initial weakness. Other markets are generally stuck in familiar range. Dollar and Yen remain the strongest one for the week but there is still no clear follow through buying. Oil...
US Oil Inventory Rose Sharply as Demand Plunged on Crisis
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +21.04 mmb to 1286.82 mmb in the week ended March 27. Crude oil inventory soared +13.83 mmb (consensus: +4 mmb) to 469.19 mmb. Stockpile rose in ALL PADDs....
Dollar and Yen Back in Driving Seat as Risk Aversion is Coming Back
Dollar and Yen are trading as the stronger ones today as risk aversion seems to be coming back as another quarter starts. Commodity currencies are thew weakest ones as led by Canadian Dollar for now. Private job data from the US were not as bad as expected. But just...
Markets Remain in Quiet Mood, Dollar Rebound Lost Momentum
Markets are starting another with rather quiet mood. Some economic data might be not as bad as expected, but they're giving no lift to sentiments. Dollar attempted for a rebound overnight but there was apparently no follow through buying. Gold's dip was a positive sign for the greenback but...
Dollar Showing Signs of Rebound While Other Markets Consolidate
Markets continue to staying in tight range today as consolidations continue. There is still no end in sight regarding the coronavirus pandemic, with confirmed cases breaking 800k handle, and deaths above 39k. Movements in the major stock indexes are mild based on recent standard. WTI crude oil is back...
Chinese Government Expected to Accelerate Stimulus Despite Sharp Rebound in PMIs.
China’s official PMIs sharply rebounded in March. Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52, from a record low of 35.7 in February. The non-manufacturing index rose to 52.3, from a record low of 29.6 in February. We suggest to interpret the data with caution as the qualitative nature of the survey...
Chinese Data Fail to Lift Sentiments, Markets Locked Down in Range
Markets are generally directionless in Asian session today. Strong rebound in China PMIs somewhat fails to lift sentiments. As the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, China could be the first country to come out of it. Yet, one month of data is insufficient to confirm recovery, as the world...
Dollar Recovers as Risk Sentiments Turn Soft, Still Early to Call Bottom
Global financial markets are generally quiet today. Stocks quickly pared back some of initial losses even though major indices are staying in red. US futures suggest that there is no clear direction for now. Dollar recovers generally and appears to be gathering momentum entering into US session. Yen, Swiss...