FOMC Preview – Fed to Discuss Asset Purchases Arrangement as Balance Sheet Surpasses US$ 7 Trillion
We do not expect any change in the monetary policy at the November meeting. That is, the Fed should leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged at US$120B/month. The central bank will maintain a dovish stance, warning that risks to growth are skewed...
Dollar Broadly Sold Off as Markets in Full Risk-On Mode
Global stocks surge sharply as investors seem to be very optimistic on the result out of US elections. Major European indices are currently up around 2% while DOW future is up 400 pts. Dollar is sold off sharply, together with Yen and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar left RBA's rate...
RBA Cuts Rates and Increases QE Purchases for at Least 6 More Months
As expected, RBA announced further monetary easing at today’s meeting. RBA cut the cash rate to 0.1%, from 0.25% previously. Similarly, the target for the yield on the 3-year government bond yield and the interest rate on new drawings under the Term Funding Facility were also lowered to 0.1%....
Australian Dollar Weakens after RBA Rate Cut, Canadian Rebounds with Oil Price
Asian Markets rebound notably today, following the strong close in US overnight. Canadian Dollar staged a U-turn, following the path of oil price. Australian Dollar is trading generally lower today following RBA's easing announcement. Yet, downside is relatively limited, expect versus a few. Dollar has turned mixed, together with...
Euro and Dollar Turn Mixed as Global Stocks Rebound
Commodity currencies are taking control into US session with help from rebound in European indices. DOW future is also currently up around 450 pts. Canadian Dollar came out of the shadow of steep decline in oil prices, leading Aussie and Kiwi. At the time of writing, Sterling is the...
BOE Preview – Expanding QE Size while Keeping Rate Unchanged at Record Low
At the meeting this week, we expect BOE to increase the size of asset purchases (QE), by 100B pound, to 845B pound. The Bank rate will stay unchanged at 0.1%. Economic data released since the last meeting suggest that the members’ forecasts in August were too optimistic. A downgrade...
Dollar Firm into a Week of Election, Fed and NFP
Dollar and Yen strengthen in general in Asian session today even though risk sentiments are not bad, as seen in rally in major indices. Solid data from China was enough to offset the pessimism over lockdowns in Europe, and the steep decline in oil prices. Sterling is currently the...
RBA Preview – Expecting New Easing Package of Rate Cuts and QE Expansion
It is widely anticipated that RBA will announce more easing measures at this week’s meeting. The package of measures will likely include a rate cut to 0.1% and expansion of the yield curve control program with the focus on 5-10 year bonds.
Economic Development since October
Economic data released since the...
Key Levels to Watch as US Presidential Election Looms
Global equities tumbled notably last week, partly as coronavirus spread was hitting new record highs. Also of the same importance, US investor had lightened up their positions in preparation for the Presidential elections. Yen and Dollar surged broadly to end as the strongest one. Euro was the worst performing,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Falling Euro Soared amidst Fresh Lockdown Measures
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 27, NET SHORT of USD Index futures slipped -412 to 1 254 contracts. Speculative long positions increased +687 contracts and short positions added +275 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dived -10...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Energy Prices Declined as Resurgent Covid Cases Raised Concerns over Demand Outlook
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 27, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -18 258 contracts to 472 090 for the week. Speculative long position dropped -4 919 contracts, while shorts soared +13 339 contracts. The front-month WTI crude oil contract...
Traders Calm ahead of Pre-Election Weekend, Dollar Pares Gains
Investors are rather calm just ahead of the pre-election weekend. European indices quickly pare back initial losses, while DOW future is down not as much before open. Dollar is also giving up some of this week's gains, despite pretty solid personal income and spending data. On the other hand,...
Dollar and Yen Firm in Tight Range, Busy Day Ahead
Forex markets are staying in relatively tight range on mixed market sentiments. Asian indices turn lower despite a weak recovery in US markets overnight. For the week, Yen and Dollar are still the strongest ones. Euro is the weakest one after ECB indicated some policy recalibration in December. Canadian...
ECB Expects “Very Negative” Data in November, Pledges to Recalibrate Measures to Downturn
ECB has announced to leave all its monetary policy measures unchanged. The deposit rate stays at -0.5%, while the main refi rate and the marginal lending rate also remain unchanged at 0% and 0.25% respectively. The PEPP program will continue to run with a total envelope of 1.35 trillion...
Euro Down after ECB, Oil Tumbles, Dollar and Yen Rise
After a brief pause, Dollar and Yen are both extending rally in European session today. Stocks are clearly lacking momentum for even a small recovery. More surprisingly, the selloff in oil prices accelerate with WTI now pressing 35 handle. Euro is currently is the weakest one for today, after...
Dollar and Yen Firm as Asia Stabilizes, Euro Awaits ECB
The forex markets are rather steady in Asian session today, after the sharp moves overnight. Asian stocks are rather immune from the mini crash in the US. Still, for the week, Yen and Dollar are currently the strongest ones on risk aversion. Canadian Dollar is the worst performing, suffering...
WTI Crude Oil Price Plunged after US Inventory Increased Much more than Expected
The front-month WTI crude oil contract slumped to the lower in 4 weeks as increase in US inventory almost quadrupled expectations. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the...
BOC Recalibrated QE with Focus on Long-term Bonds. Downgraded Growth for 2021
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in October. The central bank explicitly noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged at least until 2023. Meanwhile, it announced to “recalibrate” the QE program, reducing weekly purchases “gradually” to at least CAD 4 billion and turning the focus to...
Intensifying Worries on Very Serious Coronavirus Situation in Europe, Dollar and Yen Surge on Risk Aversion
Intensifying worries over out-of-control coronavirus spread in Europe push European stocks to 5-month low today. US futures also point to sharply lower open as this week's decline would likely extend. Dollar and Yen jump on risk aversion, followed by Swiss Franc to a slightly smaller extend. Australian Dollar and...
Euro Tumbles on Coronavirus and Lockdown, Yen Riding Higher
European majors are all trading broadly lower today on worsening coronavirus spread and return to lockdowns. Mild risk aversion keeps the Japanese Yen afloat but it's outperformed slightly by Aussie, after slightly stronger than expected Australian CPI reading. Dollar is mixed for the moment, benefitting little from risk aversion....