ECB’s Minutes Revealed that Upside from US’ Fiscal Stimulus Not Yet Reflected in March Forecasts
ECB's minutes for the March meeting have lent support to EURUSD. The minutes revealed that policymakers saw upside risks to the economic outlook, thanks to US’ huge fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, despite higher inflation in the near-term, it should remain subdued and below the central bank’s target. Policymakers also pledged...
USD/JPY Extends Correction Lower, Dragging Down Other Yen Crosses
USD/JPY's near term correction accelerates lower today and the development drags down other Yen crosses too. There is no apparent reason for the rush into Yen. Stocks, yields, metals, and oil are all steady for now. We'll monitor if the Yen's rally is a prelude to some other developments...
Fed Upbeat on Recovery, while Pledged to Maintain Stimulus Until Substantial Progress is Seen On Economy
The FOMC minutes for the March meeting revealed that members turned more optimistic over the economic outlook. They were more hopeful of continuous improvement in light of the "significant declines in the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over the intermeeting period as well as a pickup...
Euro Making Progress as Focus Turns to ECB Accounts
Markets are generally mixed as FOMC minutes overnight delivered basically what have be told. Asian stocks are mixed, following the US session. Gold and oil are both stuck in range. In the currency markets, Euro and Swiss Franc are paring some gains. But both stay as the best performer...
US Crude Inventory Declined More than Expected. Refinery Products Saw Stock-build
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +2.31 mmb to 1292.63 mmb in the week ended April 2. Crude oil inventory sank -3 522 mmb (consensus: -1.44 mmb) to 498.31 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4...
Euro and Franc March on, Sterling Extends Slide
The rallies of Euro and Swiss Franc continue today, with much help by buying in crosses, in particular against Sterling and Aussie. The latter two are currently the worst performing ones, with Sterling as the weakest for the week too. Dollar is actually performing not too badly, down just...
Euro and Franc Strong in Mixed Markets, Dollar Await FOMC Minutes
Euro and Swiss Franc are currently the strongest ones for the week, but overall markets are relatively mixed. The rise in Euro owes a large part to Sterling's pull back, as well as Dollar's weakness for now. While overall risk sentiments are positive, there is no clear strength in...
Sterling Paring Recent Gains, Euro and Swiss Firmer
Positive sentiment sent German DAX to new record high today, while US futures point to a firm open. Investors are becoming more optimistic on the upcoming recovery, as seen in Eurozone Sentix data. IMF also raised growth forecast of the whole world and all advanced economies. The movements in...
RBA Hints to Expand QE In Order to Boost Job and Inflation
The RBA left all its monetary policy measures unchanged in April. The cash rate target stays at 0.1%. correspondingly, the 3-year Australian Government Bond yield target (yield curve control) and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate also remain at 0.1%. The size QE purchases is kept at AUD100...
Dollar Tumbles as DOW Hits Record, Aussie Shrugs RBA
Dollar trades broadly lower this week so far, following the strong record close in stocks overnight. Nevertheless, Yen and, to a larger extent, Swiss Franc are not following the selloff much. Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher together with Sterling. Aussie yawns RBA rate decision, which provided nothing new...
Sterling Rises in Subdued Markets, Stocks to Extend Record Runs
Sterling rises together with commodity currencies today. Trading has been rather subdued with most markets closed. But activities should come back to life in US session. US futures point to sharply higher open with DOW likely to ride on the sentiment to extend recent record runs. Euro and Dollar...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Both Sides
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +8 255 contracts to 531 310 for the week. Speculative long position fell -11 857 contracts, while shorts declined -20 112 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Lower Euro Soared on Rising US Yields and Renewed Lockdowns
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 30, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +343 contracts to 5 726. Speculative long positions gained +2 667 contracts while shorts added +2 324 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures slumped...
Dollar Retreats after Jobless Claims, Sluggish Pre-Holiday Trading Elsewhere
Dollar retreats mildly in early US session after weaker than expected job data. Also, treasury yield is retreating mildly while stocks point to higher open, in particular NASDAQ. Pre-holiday trading in the currency markets is generally mixed. Aussie tumbled earlier today but has recovered a large part of the...
Aussie Tumbles in Pre-Holiday Markets, Dollar Awaits ISM
Dollar is generally firm today while selling focus turned to Australian Dollar, and other commodity currencies. It's unsure what's the exact catalyst for the selloff in Aussie. But recent pull back in copper price is likely one of the reasons at least. Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc, recover, except...
Crude Oil Remained Under Pressure although Inventory Surprisingly Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -1.35 mmb to 1290.33 mmb in the week ended March 26. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.88 mmb (consensus: -0.1 mmb) to 501.84 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
Gold Price Pressured as Upbeat Data and Less Dovish Fed Support Yields
Rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold. The Comex gold contract is on the way to record a second consecutive week of decline. Encouraging economic data and a less dovish Fed are the key factors pressuring the yellow metal.
US economic data have been upbeat. Consumer confidence jumped +19.3...
Sterling and Loonie Rises, Dollar Shrugs ADP and Awaits Biden
Yen remains generally weak in early US session today. But buying focuses against the Japanese currency has somewhat turned from Dollar to Sterling and Canadian. Both the Pound and Loonie were lifted slightly be better than expected GDP data. On the other hand, Dollar's rally is losing some momentum....
China’s Economic Activities Expanded Strongly in March. Trade Frictions and Pandemic Remain Key to Outlook
China’s official data suggest that the country’s economy recovered significantly in March. PMI readings for all of manufacturing, services and construction activities improved strongly. While seasonal factor (low base effect in February) played a role, the strong first quarter reading signals that economic recovery remains underway. Key risks are...
Selloff in Yen and Franc Continues, Euro also Weak
Selloff in Yen and Swiss Franc remain a main theme in the markets in Asia today, while Euro is also weak. Dollar is staying firm but it's struggling to extend gain against commodity currencies and Sterling for now. Indeed, Aussie and Loonie are now trying to reverse some of...