CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Price Increased Further as $70/bbl Level Breached
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +13 457 contracts to 523 956 for the week. Speculative long position gained +7 013 contracts, while shorts fell -6 444 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar and Yen in Brief Retreat as Stocks and Yields Rebound
Dollar and Yen retreat as markets enter into US session. Stock markets are staging a mild rebound in Europe, while US futures also point to higher open. Treasury yields also recovered from earlier decline, with US 10-year yield back above 1.4 handle at the time of writing. New Zealand...
Yen Surges on Falling Stocks and Yields, Dollar Takes a Breather
Yen rises broadly today as risk aversion is dominating the overall financial markets. In particular, US 10-year yield dives through 1.4 handle in Asia, and we'd see if the weakness would persist. Though, selling focus is turning from Aussie and Kiwi to Canadian. Dollar is consolidating last week's strong...
Dollar Solidified Strong Near Term Rally, But Not in Long Term Reversal Yet
Dollar ended last week sharply higher as boosted by the surprisingly hawkish FOMC projections. Yen followed as second strongest on steep selloff in stocks, while Euro is a distant third. Commodity currencies were the worst performers, with Aussie leading the way, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Though, Swiss Franc...
Sterling Tumbles on Poor Retail Sales and Rise in Coronavirus Cases
Sterling is among the worst performing currency for today, together with commodity currencies. Poor retail sales data from the UK is weighing on the Pound. Additionally, the resurgence in coronavirus infections, now due to the delta variant, in the UK is concerning. Daily new cases jumped above 11k, after...
Dollar Consolidating Gains, Yen Also Firm after BoJ
Dollar is consolidating some gains in Asia session today but remains overwhelmingly the strongest for the week. Yen is following closely as second best. Yet, there is no one-sided risk aversion in the markets to help Yen against Dollar. US stock indexes ended mixed overnight only, while Asian markets...
Dollar Power Continues, But Yen Trying to Overtake
Dollar's post-FOMC strength continues to overwhelm the markets today. Though, Yen is also catching up as US futures point to a weak open. Selling in commodity Yen crosses is also helping the Japanese currency. Swiss Franc is currently the worst performing, as SNB sounded it's fully in inertia despite...
Dollar Soars on Hawkish FOMC, EUR/USD Breaks 1.2
Dollar surges overnight after much hawkish than expected Fed interest rate projections. The case of near term bullish reversal continues to build up and there is prospect of further rally before weekend. Markets are relatively mixed elsewhere though. Australian Dollar is lifted by strong job data while New Zealand...
Fed Projects 2 Rate Hikes in 2023, Strongly Upgrades Growth and Inflation Outlook
The Fed has turned more hawkish at the June meeting. Besides significant upgrades in the GDP growth and inflation forecasts, the median dot plots now project two rate hikes in 2023, compared with no rate hike until 2024. At the press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that the...
Markets Await Fed, Canadian Dollar Shrugs Strong CPI
Dollar softens quite notably in early US session as markets await FOMC rate decision. Though, Swiss Franc and Euro appear to be slightly weaker. On the other hand, Kiwi and Aussie are strengthening mildly but Canadian Dollar shrugs off stronger than expected consumer inflation data. Sterling also firms up...
China’s Recovery Slowed in May amidst Resurgence of Pandemic
China’s major economic data missed expectations in May. Industrial production (IP) expanded +8.8% y/y in May, worse than consensus of +9.2% and April’s +9.8%. Retail sales growth decelerated to +12.4% y/y, from +17.7% in April. The market had anticipated a +14% growth. Fixed asset investment (FAI) gained +15.4% y/y...
Dollar Awaits Fed’s Dots for More Rally
Dollar is maintaining much of this week's gains as focus now turns to FOMC statement and economic projections. There is prospect of further rally for the greenback should some policymakers pull ahead their rate hike expectations. But the overall reactions would more depend on interaction with other markets like...
Dollar Surges on Record PPI, Sterling Tumbles
Dollar jumps in early US session after strong, record making, PPI inflation data. The worse than expected retail sales and manufacturing data were shrugged off. Yen and Euro are following as next strongest for now. Sterling continues to be weighed down by delay in reopening and it's trading and...
Yen Crosses Rebound as NASDAQ and S&P 500 Made New Records
Yen trades broadly overnight on strong risk appetite, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing at new record highs. And it remains generally soft in Asian session. Some selling in seen in Australian Dollar after RBA minutes, but loss is very limited. Other commodity currencies are indeed trying to firm...
RBA Minutes Reveal Members Discussed Three Options to Extend QE
The RBA minutes for the June meeting indicated that the member turned more optimistic about economic recovery. Yet, they remained concerned about soft inflation and wage growth. Accommodative monetary policy would stay in place for the years ahead. at the next meeting, we will likely hear more details about...
FOMC Preview – Too Early to for Tapering while Surge in Inflation is More Imminent
We do not expect the Fed talk about tapering at this week's meeting. Policymakers would likely hint more about it at the Jackson Hole symposium in August while a formal announcement would be made at the September FOMC meeting. Rather, we are more interested in its view on the...
Sterling Softens on Possible Reopening Delay, Range Trading Continues
The forex markets continue to be generally quiet today, stuck inside Friday's range. Sterling is mildly lower on talks that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going to delay easing of restrictions due to rise in the Delta variant infections. Yen is also trading lower together with Swiss Franc....
Forex Quiet as FOMC Awaited; Gold, Oil and Bitcoin on Moves
Trading is generally subdued in Asian session today, with little reactions to the G7 summit. Also, China and Hong Kong are on a one-day holiday. Commodity currencies are mildly firmer while Swiss Franc and Yen are softer. But all major pairs and crosses are stuck inside Friday's range. Instead,...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Euro Trimmed as ECB Refrained from Hinting “Taper”
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 8, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -1 212 contracts to 2 891. Speculative long positions rose +1 679 contracts while shorts increased +2 891 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Crude Oil Prices Increased amid Demand Hopes
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended June 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +19 202 contracts to 510 499 for the week. Speculative long position rose +18 717 contracts, while shorts dropped -485 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...