At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent.
Inflation remains above target and is proving persistent.
Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. But inflation is still some way above the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range. In underlying terms, as represented by the trimmed mean, the CPI rose by 3.9 per cent over the year to the June quarter, broadly as forecast in the May Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). But the latest numbers also demonstrate that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters. And quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
The outlook remains highly uncertain.
The economic outlook is uncertain and recent data have demonstrated that the process of returning inflation to target has been slow and bumpy.
The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3 per cent late in 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought. In part, this reflects an increase in the forecast for domestic demand. But it also reflects a judgement that the economy’s capacity to meet that demand is somewhat weaker than previously thought, evidenced by the persistence of inflation and ongoing strength in the labour market.
There is substantial uncertainty around these forecasts. Revisions to consumption and the saving rate in the most recent National Accounts, high unit labour costs and the persistence of inflation – particularly in the services sector – suggest there are upside risks to inflation. Wages growth appears to have peaked but is still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity growth.
On the other hand, momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. And there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
More broadly, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slower growth in the economy at a time of excess demand, and while conditions in the labour market remain tight.
There also remains a high level of uncertainty about the overseas outlook. The outlook for the Chinese economy has softened and this has been reflected in commodity prices. Some central banks have eased policy, although they remain alert to the risk of persistent inflation. Globally, financial markets have been volatile of late and the Australian dollar has depreciated. Geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated, which may have implications for supply chains.
Returning inflation to target is the priority.
Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remain the case.
Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range. Data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out. Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.
The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
