Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.53; (P) 130.21; (R1) 131.37; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.49).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.15; (P) 110.39; (R1) 110.79; More…

At this point, USD/JPY is staying below 114.42 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. No change in the view that price actions from 113.17 are a corrective pattern. We’d continue to expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.74; (P) 108.90; (R1) 109.06; More…

With 108.25 minor support intact, further rise is expected in USD/JPY to 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, however, break of 108.25 support will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for 106.48 support next.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.50; (P) 109.63; (R1) 109.80; More…

With 4 hour MACD dropped below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 109.89. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turn neutral first. Another rise could be seen with 107.77 minor support intact. On the upside, above 109.89 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. We’d look for topping signal above there. On the downside, break of 107.77 will indicate completion of the rebound from 104.69. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as part of the falling leg from 118.65 (2016 high). Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 98.97 to contain downside to bring reversal. Also, this bearish case will remain the preferred one as long as 114.54 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.09; (P) 141.88; (R1) 143.07; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 137.22 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 145.60 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 172.20. Next target is 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76. On the downside, below 141.99 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.83; (P) 157.12; (R1) 157.43; More…

USD/JPY drops sharply in early US session but stays in range of 154.53/157.70 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.09; (P) 111.29; (R1) 111.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that we’re still favoring the case that correction from 113.17 has completed at 109.76 already. On the upside, above 111.48 will extend the rebound from 109.76 to 112.14 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. Meanwhile, below 110.74 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.79; (P) 130.04; (R1) 130.38; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 131.24. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Near term outlook remains bullish with 126.91 support intact. Break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 126.91 will confirm short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for a correction.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.94; (P) 113.24; (R1) 113.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We’d tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.62; (P) 135.92; (R1) 136.29; More…

USD/JPY recovers but stays below 136.99 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29. On the downside, however, break of 134.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back to 131.34 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.39; (P) 113.81; (R1) 114.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.23 temporary top. Consolidation might extend for a while. Still, outlook stays bullish as long as 111.64 support holds. Decisive break of 114.49 resistance will confirm that correction pattern from 118.65 has completed at 107.31 already. And USD/JPY should then target a test on 118.65. However, break of 111.64 will dampen this bullish view and suggests that rebound from 107.31 has completed.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completed. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.63; (P) 108.90; (R1) 109.31; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 109.22 temporary top suggests resumption of rally from 102.58. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise should target long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. On the downside, though, break of 108.33 support will now indicate short term topping, and bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.01; (P) 110.18; (R1) 110.36; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 110.133 resistance. Sustained break there will argue that the choppy fall from 111.65 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting this high. Rejection by 110.33 will maintain near term bearishness. Break of 109.05 will target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA would argue that the pattern from 101.18 is starting another falling leg, that could head back to 102.58 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.47; (P) 109.88; (R1) 110.14; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment, as range trading is still in progress. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

USD/JPY dipped to 150.80 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.56). On the upside, however, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds(2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.64; (P) 146.02; (R1) 146.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence conditio in 4H MACD, firm break or 143.88 resistance turned support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 141.65).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.75; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.77; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, above 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.46; (P) 105.82; (R1) 106.08; More...

USD/JPY drops sharply today but stays in range of 105.10/107.05. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 low first. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s decline from 139.37 accelerated lower last week. The development suggest that a medium term was already formed on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 131.34 resistance turned and below. But strong support is expected above 126.35 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 135.55 will bring stronger rise back to retest 139.37 high instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

In the long term picture, rise 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA holds.

USD/JPY’s decline from 112.40 resumed last week by dropping through 109.02 support and hit as low as 108.27. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.15 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.