Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.89; (P) 114.22; (R1) 114.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Break of 113.47 will resume the fall from 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.05 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.34; (P) 148.02; (R1) 149.05; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 148.79 is extending. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but further rally is expected as long as 145.97 resistance turned support holds. Corrective fall from 151.89 should have completed at 140.25 already. Break of 148.79 will resume the rise from there for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.92; (P) 145.40; (R1) 145.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 146.76 will pave the way to retest 151.93 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 44.92 support will be a sign of reversal, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 141.95).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.49; (P) 115.02; (R1) 115.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.27; (P) 107.62; (R1) 107.91; More..

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and further rise is in favor with 106.74 minor support intact. We’re holding on to the view that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed at 105.98. Next target is 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 minor support will dampen the bullish view and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.93; (P) 108.22; (R1) 108.66; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Price actions from 109.72 are merely a corrective pattern, which could have completed at 107.77, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70. Further rise should be seen for 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 108.70). Sustained break will pave the way to retest 109.72 high. On the downside, firm break of 107.70 will pave the way to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46).

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.06; (R1) 110.32; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.02 temporary low is extending. Upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.83) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.32; (P) 157.88; (R1) 158.57; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidations above 157.61. On the downside, break of 157.16 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 157.72) will bring deeper correction to 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 159.44 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.06; (P) 135.18; (R1) 136.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for consolidation below 136.70. Downside of retreat should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 153.59 support. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. However, break of 157.70 will extend the rally from 151.86 towards 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.19; (P) 107.36; (R1) 107.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 112.40 is in progress and should target a test on 104.69 low. On the upside, above 107.73 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 108.80 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.27; (P) 133.47; (R1) 134.44; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 139.37 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deep fall should be seen to 131.34 resistance turned support and below. But strong support is expected above 126.35 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 135.55 will bring stronger rise back to retest 139.37 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 111.14; (R1) 112.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 110.23 temporary low. As recovery from 110.23 is corrective in structure, we’d favor more downside ahead. Below 110.23 will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 low. In that case, the whole decline from 118.65 would likely extend through 108.12 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.30; (P) 112.04; (R1) 112.46; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. The choppy decline from 118.65 could extend lower. But such decline is seen as a correction. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9072; (P) 0.9106; (R1) 0.9151; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidations first. Further fall is still expected with 0.9197 resistance intact. Break 0.9009 will resume larger down trend. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9197 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 9290).

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). Current development suggests that such pattern is still extending. Sustain trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.24; (R1) 107.46; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range of 106.64/107.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor and break of 107.77 will target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 which is close to 108.12. This level is crucial in determining the medium outlook. On the downside, break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.13; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.63; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 109.72 is extending. But after all, as long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.23; (P) 107.66; (R1) 108.30; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neural at this point. As long as 106.75 support holds, further rally is in favor. Break of 109.70 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 111.71. Decisive break of 112.22 carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, decisive break of 106.75 support should confirm completion of rebound from 101.18, after failing 112.22 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.75; (P) 113.99; (R1) 114.25; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 114.69 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 114.69 will resume the larger up trend to 100% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 118.18 next. Break of 113.24 will bring deeper pull back, but downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.30; (R1) 110.34; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 108.26 is still in progress but it’s limited below 110.94 resistance so far. Intraday bias stays neutral with outlook mildly bearish. Firm break of 108.12 support will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. In that case, USD/JPY will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 110.94 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rebound back towards 114.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.