Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.95; (P) 110.21; (R1) 110.49; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 109.79 support suggests that rise from 107.47 has completed at 110.81, after rejection by 110.95 resistance. Consolidation pattern from 110.95 could have started the third leg already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 109.17 support first. Break there will confirm and target 107.47 again. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 110.81 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.20; (P) 134.05; (R1) 135.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as it’s staying above 132.27 temporary low. Fall from 137.90 could still extend lower and break of 132.27 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 127.20 low. Break of 137.90 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rally from 127.20, or risk will stay mildly on the downside.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.14; (P) 112.48; (R1) 112.69; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 112.79 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 149.81; (R1) 149.96; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as sideway trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.37; (P) 111.65; (R1) 112.09; More….

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.30 so far as the rebound from 108.12 resumes. The current development indicates that corrective decline from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rally would be seen to 115.49 resistance first. Break will target 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.68; (P) 109.98; (R1) 110.22; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.58 will resume the rebound from 109.05, for retesting 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.05 will resume the fall from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.17; (R1) 109.34; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation form 109.68 is extending. With 108.70 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, though, break of 108.70 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support again, to extend the pattern from 110.95.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.39; (P) 139.82; (R1) 140.61; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. With 138.22 minor support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.62).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.69; (P) 143.10; (R1) 143.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 143.88 will resume the rebound from 137.22 to retest 145.06. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 127.20. On the downside, however, break of 141.50 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 140.60).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.22; (P) 144.47; (R1) 144.72; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 145.06 is extending. On the downside, break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.79) could trigger deeper correction. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.67; (P) 137.12; (R1) 137.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first as it’s losing upside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Strong resistance could be seen from 139.37 to limit upside, to start the third leg of the corrective pattern from 139.37. Break of 136.17 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 130.38 support. Nevertheless, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm up trend resumption for 147.68 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 139.37 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 123.72) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes. Next target is 147.68 (1998 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.85; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.01). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.17; (R1) 109.34; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 108.70 minor support suggests that recovery form 107.47 has completed at 109.68. That also argues that the decline from 110.95 isn’t over yet. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 107.47 first. Break there will resume the fall from 110.95. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.68 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullishness for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.73; (R1) 104.91; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and another fall is mildly in favor as long as 105.03 minor resistance holds. Below 104.34 will target 104.00 low first. Break will resume larger decline from 111.71. Nevertheless, sustained break of 105.03 support turned resistance will neutralize immediate near term bearishness. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 106.10 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.67; (P) 109.88; (R1) 110.04; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and risk stays Also, risk stays mildly on the downside with 111.65 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 109.52, and sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 109.83) will suggest that it’s at least correcting the rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest long term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall back towards 102.58 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.60; (P) 114.05; (R1) 114.38; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 112.88 minor support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed at 114.49 after being rejected by 114.36 key near term resistance. That would also argue that the correction from 118.65 is still in progress. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.94). On the upside, decisive break of 114.36 resistance will confirm that corrective pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12. In that case, further rally would be seen to retest 118.65.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.93; (P) 147.40; (R1) 147.76; More…

USD/JPY dips notably today, but stays well above 144.43 support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point, as consolidation from 147.88 could extend. But outlook remains bullish with 144.43 support intact. On the upside, above 147.88 will resume larger rise from 127.20, to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by break of 137.22 support will indicate that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

USD/JPY dropped to 108.24 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Rise from 104.45 could have completed at 109.48, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, after failing to sustain above 109.31 structural resistance. On the downside, break of 107.88 support will affirm this bearish case and target 106.48 support next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.48 holds.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.59; (P) 112.93; (R1) 113.19; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 113.63 continues today but after all it’s staying in range of 112.02/113.74. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Also, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.74; (P) 109.91; (R1) 110.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as range trading continues. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.