Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.81; (P) 110.06; (R1) 110.32; More…

USD/JPY’s recovery form 109.02 extends higher today but outlook remains unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral and upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.83) to bring another fall. On the downside, below 109.81 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 109.02. Break there will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 55 day EMA will indicate completion of the fall from 112.40 and bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we’d expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

Range trading continued in USD/JPY last week and initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.43; (P) 109.65; (R1) 110.09; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 104.62 should target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. On the downside, below 108.96 will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.78).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.63; (P) 113.89; (R1) 114.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, it’s probably already in correction to whole up trend from 102.58. Break of 113.47 will target 112.52 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.05 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 110.91) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.71; (P) 109.97; (R1) 110.23; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly today but stays below 110.95 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall is in favor. On the downside, below 109.71 will resume the fall from 112.13 to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.68; (P) 133.26; (R1) 134.35; More…

Breach of 130.04 suggests that USD/JPY’s rebound from 129.26 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for rally towards 137.90 resistance. For now, further rise will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8%

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.21; (P) 113.98; (R1) 115.40; More…

Breaching 115.43 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 118.65 is completed at 112.56 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65 first. Break will resume whole rise from 98.97 and target 125.85 key resistance. In case of another fall, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.15; (R1) 110.66; More…

Despite today’s retreat, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for further rally. Current rise from 104.62 should target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next. Firm break there will target medium term trend line resistance at 112.43. On the downside, below 109.14 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.30) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.97; (P) 159.37; (R1) 161.30; More…

USD/JPY recovered after falling sharply to 157.41 but further decline is expected with 160.25 support turned resistance intact. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, fall from 161.49 might already be correcting the whole five-wave rally from 140.25. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 157.71) will affirm this bearish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 163.65.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94. However, sustained break of 154.53 will raise the chance of larger scale correction and target 140.25/151.89 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.40; (P) 108.63; (R1) 108.78; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.15; (P) 106.56; (R1) 106.82; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidative trading from 105.24. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Note again that bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.85; (P) 112.23; (R1) 112.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it’s consolidating below 112.91 temporary top. On the upside, Sustained break of the medium term channel resistance will argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.94 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it’s uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it’s a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we’ll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.70; (R1) 108.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.93 minor support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 108.99 will resume the rebound from 106.78 for 100% projection of 106.78 to 108.99 from 107.21 at 109.42 and then 161.8% projection at 110.78. On the downside, below 107.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) not completed yet, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

USD/JPY resumed the decline from 111.71 last week and hit 102.87. But a temporary low was formed quickly. Initial bias in neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 102.87 will resume the down trend for retesting 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 104.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of bullish reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.61; (R1) 108.77; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. On the upside, break of 109.48 resistance will resume whole rise from 104.45 and target trend line resistance (now at 111.79). On the downside, break of 108.24 support will revive the case of short term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 107.88 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.96; (P) 110.07; (R1) 110.28; More..

break of 110.21 temporary top suggests rally resumption. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the upside. Whole rally from 104.45 is in progress and should target 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next. Nevertheless, break of 109.79 support will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.07; (P) 134.60; (R1) 135.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen. But another rally will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.49; (P) 111.70; (R1) 111.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Deeper decline remains mildly in favor as a short term top was formed at 112.40 already. On the downside, break of 110.84 support add to the case of reversal and target 109.71 support and below. However, decisive break of 112.40 will confirm rise resumption for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.77; (P) 113.53; (R1) 114.00; More…

The breach of 113.24 minor support dampens the bullish case. Corrective fall from 118.65 could still be in progress. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside to 111.58 or possibly below. However, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 114.94 resistance should now confirm completion of the correction. And in that case, USD/JPY should target a retest on 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.26; (P) 104.57; (R1) 104.76; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 104.00 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 111.71, towards 101.18 key support. On the upside, break of 105.05 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.