Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.02; (P) 157.38; (R1) 157.78; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and further decline is expected with 158.85 resistance intact. Below 155.36 will target 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 161.94 at 153.65. On the upside, above 158.85 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 151.89 resistance turned support holds, long term up trend could still continue through 161.94 at a later stage. Next target will depend on the depth of the current correction from 161.94. However, sustained break of 151.89 will argue that larger scale correction or trend reversal is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.66; (P) 135.33; (R1) 135.90; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 136.99 is extending. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD, a correction could be imminent. On the downside, break of 134.25 support will confirm short term topping at 136.99. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 131.34 support resistance turned support. Nevertheless, firm break of 136.99 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.04; (P) 111.30; (R1) 111.73; More…

USD/JPY rebounds after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA, but stays below 112.07 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Another retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 110.44 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 112.07 will extend larger rise to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71 next. However, break of 110.44 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 109.11 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 111.71 resistance suggests that the whole corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed at 101.18 (2020 low) already. Medium term bullishness is also affirmed as USD/JPY stays well above 55 week EMA (now at 108.60). Sustained trading above 111.71 will affirm this bullish case. Rise from 101.18 could then be resuming whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) through 118.65. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.94; (P) 112.58; (R1) 113.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside as the correction from 113.17 extends. Deeper fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 111.39 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.50 minor resistance will bring retest of 113.17 first.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.63; (P) 115.20; (R1) 115.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.91; (R1) 111.49; More..

USD/JPY’s break of 110.28 resistance turned support now raises the chance of near term bearish reversal. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.30 support next. Decisive break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 104.45 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, above 111.04 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.22/40 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 (Dec 2016) might have completed with three waves down to 104.45 already. Focus is back of 114.54 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this case and bring resumption of whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) towards 125.85 (2015 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 108.30 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.62; (P) 111.10; (R1) 111.40; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as it’s bounded in range of 110.10/112.19. The pair is staying in the near term falling channel and the correction from 118.65 could extend lower. Below 110.10 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.88; (P) 131.44; (R1) 132.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 next. On the downside, below 130.97 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral to bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.73; (P) 114.25; (R1) 114.89; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded below 114.95 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of the corrective pull back from 118.65. This would be supported by a double bottom pattern (111.58, 111.68). In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the upside for retesting 118.65. In case of another decline, we’d still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.01; (P) 142.04; (R1) 143.83; More…

USD/JPY accelerates to as high as 144.37 so far today as up trend continues. 100% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 143.40 is already met but there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 147.68 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 140.24 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.34; (P) 114.70; (R1) 114.95; More…

The break of 114.30 minor support suggests that recovery from 113.47 has completed at 115.05. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 113.47. Break will target 112.52 structural support. Considering bearish divergence condition in in daily MACD, further break of 112.52 will confirm that it’s already in correction to the up trend from 102.58. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 116.34 at 111.08. On the upside, break of 115.05 will resume the rebound from 113.47. But we’d not expect a break of 116.34 high even in this case.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. However, firm break of 112.52 support will dampen this bullish case and we’ll assess the outlook based on subsequent price actions later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.76; (P) 157.94; (R1) 158.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the upside with break of 158.25 temporary top. Choppy rise from 151.86 has resumed and is now targeting a retest on 160.20 high. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 157.59 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 160.20 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 150.25 only. Another rally is still expected at a later stage through 160.02 to resume the larger up trend. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.99; (P) 104.67; (R1) 105.18; More...

USD/JPY drops to as low as 130.60 so far today. The strong break of 104.00 support indicates resumption of whole decline form 111.71. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 100% projection of 106.10 to 104.02 from 105.34 at 103.26. Break will target 161.8% projection at 101.97. On the upside, break of 105.34 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.57; (P) 107.25; (R1) 109.31; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for now as more consolidation would be seen. But upside should be limited by 109.36 minor resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 106.74 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 104.62 low. Decisive break of 104.62 low will extend larger down trend and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Fall from 114.54 is seen as another medium term down leg, targeting 98.97/104.62 support zone. For now, we’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.40; (P) 110.58; (R1) 110.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 11.10 is still extending. Further rally is still expected with 109.70 support intact. Larger up trend from 102.58 might be resuming. Above 111.10 will target 111.71 key resistance next. Firm break there will carry larger implication. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 110.95 from 107.47 at 112.64 next. On the downside, however, break of 109.70 support will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.32; (P) 108.65; (R1) 108.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment but risk stays on the downside with 109.68 resistance intact. Break of 107.47 will resume the decline from 110.95 to 100% projection of 110.95 to 107.47 from 109.68 at 106.20. However, break of 109.68 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.37; (P) 110.49; (R1) 110.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Corrective fall from 111.65 should have completed with three waves down to 108.71. Another rise is in favor with 110.01 support intact. Break of 110.79 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 111.65 high. However, break of 110.01 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias to the downside for 108.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.57; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 108.27 temporary low. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.76; (P) 105.31; (R1) 105.62; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 104.40 support intact, further rise is in favor. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 108.22. However, on the downside, break of 104.40 will turn bias to the downside for 103.31 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.84) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.15).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.91; (P) 156.95; (R1) 159.37; More…

USD/JPY is extending consolidation from 160.20 and intraday remains neutral. Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 154.95 to bring recovery. But break of 160.20 is not envisaged for now. However, firm break of 154.95 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 152.00).

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.