Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.54; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 112.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.62; (P) 143.16; (R1) 143.47; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 144.98 is extending. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 139.37 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 144.98 will resume larger up trend to 147.68 long term resistance. Break there will target 161.8% projection of 126.35 to 139.37 from 130.38 at 151.44 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.24; (P) 136.03; (R1) 136.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and further rise is still in favor with 134.25 minor support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection at 143.29. However, break of 134.25 will turn bias back to the downside for 131.48 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.21; (P) 106.46; (R1) 106.84; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 105.54 extends higher today but upside is limited well below 108.72 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with near term outlook staying bearish. Below 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.10; (P) 136.45; (R1) 137.00; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, firm break of 134.73 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour and daily MACD. Deeper fall would be seen through 55 day EMA to 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.80; (P) 109.90; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 110.21 temporary top. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 109.24 minor support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.21 will extend whole rise from 104.45 to 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.41; (P) 143.68; (R1) 145.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Upside of current recovery should be limited below 156.48 resistance to bring another decline. Firm break of 140.94 will resume the whole fall from 151.89. Next target will be next fibonacci level at 136.63.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63, sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). This will now remain the favored as long as 146.58 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.85; (P) 135.30; (R1) 136.20; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Pull back from 137.76 should have completed at 133.73. Further rise would be seen for retesting 137.76/90 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.73 will resume the fall from 137.76 through 133.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.45; (P) 146.12; (R1) 147.07; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 151.93 accelerated lower today Break of 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 argues that fall form 151.93 is correcting larger up trend. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 130.38/139.37 support zone. On the other hand, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 146.78 resistance, will indicate that such correction has completed, and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 144.44) will argue that 151.93 is a medium term top. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. While it’s too early to call for trend reversal, deeper decline would then be seen to 55 week EMA (now at 130.73).

USD/JPY’s rise form 102.58 accelerated to as high as 108.68 last week. There is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. On the downside, below 107.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend form 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.78; (P) 148.05; (R1) 148.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 140.25 should target a retest on 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 147.64 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, stronger than expected rebound from 140.25 dampened the original bearish review. Strong support from 55 W EMA (now at 141.89) is also a medium term bullish sign. Fall from 151.89 could be a correction to rise from 127.20 only. Decisive break of 151.89/93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. This will now be the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.71; (P) 148.04; (R1) 148.63; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Corrective fall from 150.87 could have completed at 146.47 already, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81. Further rise should be seen to retest 150.87 next. Nevertheless, on the downside, below 148.02 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that price action from 151.89 (2023 high) are correction to up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). The question is whether this correction has completed at 140.25, or extending with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. Sustained break of above mentioned 146.81 fibonacci level will favor the latter case. But even so, downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 139.54.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.14; (P) 112.48; (R1) 112.69; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 112.79 temporary top is in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen. But downside should be contained well above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. Current development affirms the case of medium term reversal. Above 112.79 will target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish view.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.32; (P) 110.56; (R1) 110.90; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as focus stays on 110.95 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 for 111.71 key resistance. On the downside, break of 109.70 support will extend the consolidation pattern from 110.95 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.92; (P) 114.20; (R1) 114.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the downside with break of 113.74 minor support. Fall from 114.96 would target 112.71 structural support next. Firm break there will bring deeper correction bask towards 111.65 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 114.96 is now needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral for more corrective trading first.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.39; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.91; More…

Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged. Intraday bias stays neutral and risk remains on the downside with 110.32 resistance intact. Corrective rise from 107.47 could have completed at 110.32 already. Break of 109.17 will target 108.55 support first. Break there should indicate that pattern from 110.95 has started the third leg already and target 107.47 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

USD/JPY edged lower to 127.20 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. There is no clear sign of bottoming yet, and another fall remains mildly in favor. Break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 131.56 should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.52) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

In the long term picture, 151.93 looks increasingly likely a major top. But it’s too early to call for long term bearish reversal at this point. Rebound from around 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for price action from 151.93 to be just a corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.71; (P) 109.97; (R1) 110.23; More…

With 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for some consolidation above 109.71 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 110.95 minor resistance holds. Below 109.71 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.19; (P) 112.76; (R1) 113.81; More…

USD/JPY rebounds strongly with a break of 113.44 minor resistance. The development suggests that correction fro 118.65 has completed at 111.58 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 115.36 resistance next. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.75; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.02; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Corrective fall from 110.28 is in progress to 55 day EMA (now at 109.12). Break will put focus on 107.65 key support. On the upside, break of 109.76 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.28 high instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.