Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.68; (P) 149.83; (R1) 150.01; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 150.15 could extend further. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.20; (P) 138.67; (R1) 138.94; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 139.37. Downside of retreat should be contained by 134.73 support. On the upside, break of 139.37 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.81; (P) 142.19; (R1) 142.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current strong recovery. On the upside, break of 143.88 will resume the rebound from 137.22 to retest 145.06. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 127.20. On the downside, however, break of 141.50 will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 140.60).

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.20; (P) 108.74; (R1) 109.15; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 107.47 support first. Break there will resume whole decline from 110.95 for 100% projection of 110.95 to 107.47 from 109.68 at 106.20 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.68 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.04; (P) 127.43; (R1) 128.00; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that correction from 131.34 is finished. Intraday bias will back on the upside for retesting 131.34 high. On the downside, break of 126.35 will extend the correction. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.33; (R1) 113.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as this point as correction fall from 114.54 might extend. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94 will target 61.8% retracement at 111.96. On the upside, above 113.55 minor resistance will bring retest on 114.54 and 114.73 key resistance first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.12; (P) 115.43; (R1) 115.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today’s recovery. On the downside, below 115.00 will extend the fall from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper fall would be seen to 114.14 support, and then 113.46. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.36; (P) 106.55; (R1) 106.89; More...

USD/JPY’s recovery from 105.98 extends higher today and focus is back on 107.49 resistance. Break there will suggest short term bottoming. Corrective decline from 111.71 might have completed too. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first. On the downside, break of 105.98 will extend the fall from 111.71 to 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.54; (P) 113.65; (R1) 113.87; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.52/113.94 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.41; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.62; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside for the moment. Rise from 130.38 should target a test on 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside, to bring another fall, as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 139.37. On the downside, below 132.50 minor support will resume the fall from 139.37 towards 126.35 structural support.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.51; (P) 108.72; (R1) 109.14; More..

USD/JPY’s rally continues today and hits as high as 109.22 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside for channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 108.08 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.48; (R1) 110.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 110.95 minor resistance intact, further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, break of 109.71 will resume the decline from 112.13 to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will argue that the pull back from 112.13 has completed at 109.17. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 112.13.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we’ll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.92; (P) 153.12; (R1) 153.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed below signal line. Some consolidations could be seen first. But further rally is expected as long as 150.80 support holds. Break of 153.37 will resume larger up trend to 155.20 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.48; (P) 129.88; (R1) 130.25; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range above 127.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 134.01).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.06; (P) 104.24; (R1) 104.41; More..

USD/JPY recovers notably today but stays in range above 103.65 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re holding on to the view that larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.73; (P) 136.02; (R1) 136.40; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rally from 133.73 should be on track to retest 137.76/90 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume whole rebound from 127.20. On the downside, break of 133.73 will resume the fall from 137.76 through 133.00 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 high are currently seen as a corrective pattern to the long term up trend. The first leg should have completed at 127.20. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 142.48. Meanwhile, break of 129.62 will argue that the third leg is starting through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.50; (P) 108.85; (R1) 109.15; More…

With 108.54 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for further rise. Current rally from 104.62 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 110.86 next. On the downside, below 108.54 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.47).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.24; (R1) 106.49; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 105.10 will target a test on 104.18 low. Break there will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally towards 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.76; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.28; More..

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 108.33 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 109.35 will resume the rally from 102.58 to long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger implications. However, on the downside, break of 108.33 will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned to the downside for correction.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.60; (P) 115.89; (R1) 116.16; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation below 116.34 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained well above 114.26 support turned resistance to bring another rally. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.