Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.36; (P) 107.73; (R1) 107.92; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 107.45 minor support suggests that rebound from 104.45 has completed at 108.47 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 106.68 support first. Break will confirm and target for retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 108.47 will extend the rebound towards 109.31 key resistance. However, before that, risk will now stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.03; (P) 122.12; (R1) 122.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. With 121.17 support intact, further rally is in favor. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.96; (P) 153.85; (R1) 154.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 151.93. Further decline is expected as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.04) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.82; (P) 109.93; (R1) 110.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will now confirm completion of the rebound and bring retest of 104.69 low. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.55) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.27; (P) 110.57; (R1) 110.06; More…

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 is already met. Next target is trend line resistance at 112.43. On the downside, below 110.45 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 109.13 support holds.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 108.30) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY dived to 109.11 last week but rebounded since then. Structure of such rebound is still correctively looking and there is no clear sign of reversal. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 111.70 resistance holds, near term outlook stays mildly bearish for deeper fall. Below 109.11 will target 108.12 low first. Break will extend the whole corrective fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We will look for bottoming sign there. Meanwhile, break of 110.70 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 114.36 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.90; (P) 110.10; (R1) 110.32; More…

USD/PY dips further to 109.60 so far today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 109.71 key support will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69 at 112.40 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper decline should then be seen back to retest 104.69 low. On the upside, though, rebound from current level and break of 110.28 minor resistance will mix up near term outlook. Intraday bias will be turned neutral in this case first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Sustained break of 109.71 will argue that rebound from 104.69 is completed. And the down trend from 118.65 is still in progress. But at this stage, in case of break of 104.69, we’d expect strong support above 98.9 (2016 low) to contain downside an bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.27; (P) 155.13; (R1) 157.26; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 160.20 short term top extended with another dip to 152.99, but quickly recovered again. For now, risk will be mildly on the downside as long as 157.98 resistance holds. Deeper pullback would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 152.25), and possibly further to 61.8% retracement of 146.47 to 160.20 at 151.71. But strong support should be seen from 150.87 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.58; (P) 103.75; (R1) 103.87; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen below 104.39. On the upside, break of 104.39 and sustained trading above the channel resistance will argue that the down trend from 111.71 has finally completed. Stronger rise would be seen to 105.67 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 103.51 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.85; (P) 134.41; (R1) 134.82; More…

USD/JPY’s retreat from 135.13 extends lower today but stays above 132.03 support. Outlook is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rally will remain in favor as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.16; (R1) 109.42; More…

USD/JPY’s consolidation from 109.53 temporary top is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. But downside should be contained by 107.77 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Break of 109.53 will resume the rise from 104.62 and target 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.

In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.60).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.26; (P) 110.69; (R1) 110.92; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 111.13 extends today but stays above 110.00 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, focus remains on whether USD/JPY could sustain above 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. If yes, further rise could be seen back to 114.54 resistance. However, break of 110.00 will suggest that it’s actually rejected after the rebound from 104.69 was skewed slightly upwards. In that case, the original bearish view will be revived and further fall should be seen through 108.49 support.

In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 104.69 mixed up outlook. We’d turn neutral for now first. On the upside, firm break of 110.77 resistance will suggest that fall from 114.54 has completed at 104.69 already. Such decline is seen as a leg in the corrective pattern from 118.65, which might be finished too. Decisive break of 114.54 will confirm this case and target 118.65 and above. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will turn focus back to 104.62/9 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.21; (P) 148.66; (R1) 149.15; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation form 150.15 is still extending. On the downside, below 148.24 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg through 147.28. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.63; (P) 149.24; (R1) 149.67; More…

USD/JPY’s recent rally resumed by breaking through 150.76 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 151.93 high. Break there will target 100% projection of 129.62 to 145.06 from 137.22 at 152.66. For now, break of 148.79 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.96; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.60; More...

USD/JPY finally breaks 106.91 support to resume the decline from 111.71 today. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. Momentum of the current decline and reaction from 104.58 should reveal whether USD/JPY is resuming larger down trend. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall will remain in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.80; (P) 139.20; (R1) 140.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with current recovery. Stronger rise cannot be ruled out, but upside should be limited below 145.16 support turned resistance. Break of 137.66 will resume the decline from 151.93, to 133.07 fibonacci level, as a correction to the larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 130.58).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.52; (P) 110.97; (R1) 111.82; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 110.13 will extend the whole decline from 114.54 and target 109.76 key support level. Break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 111.46, with 109.76 key support defended, will revive near term bullishness. In this case, intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Break of 109.76 support will start another medium term down leg to 98.97/104.62 support zone. On the upside, break of 114.73 resistance will likely extend the rise from 98.97 through 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.13; (P) 110.24; (R1) 110.46; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside, as rise from 108.71 is in progress for 110.58 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 111.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.71. Stronger rise would then be seen to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, though, below 109.69 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.08; (R1) 110.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 110.32 will resume the rise from 107.47. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. On the downside, below 109.17 will target 108.55 support, and then 107.47.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.35; (P) 131.50; (R1) 132.46; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 137.90 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 137.90 at 131.28 will pave the way to retest 127.20 low next. On the upside, above 133.81 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move, with strong break of 55 day EMA. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is not over yet. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.