Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.28; (P) 148.34; (R1) 149.08; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 140.25 to 150.87 at 146.81 will argue that fall from 150.87 is reversing the whole rally from 140.25. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 144.30 and below. Nevertheless, strong support from 146.81, followed by break of 148.29 minor resistance resistance, will argue that fall from 150.87 is merely a correction, which has completed already.

In the bigger picture, outlook is mixed up as fall from 150.87 accelerates lower. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 148.45) will open up the case that corrective pattern from 151.89 (2023 high) is extending, with fall from 150.87 as the third leg. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 140.25 support or below. Nevertheless, strong bounce from 55 D EMA will retain near term bullishness for at least another take on 151.89.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.81; (P) 111.04; (R1) 111.25; More…

With 111.28 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside. Fall from 111.82 is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 112.13. Deeper decline would be seen to 109.71 and below. But downside should be contained by 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.28 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break of 112.13 will resume whole rally from 104.69 and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.72; (P) 113.33; (R1) 113.86; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as this point as correction fall from 114.54 might extend. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94 will target 61.8% retracement at 111.96. On the upside, above 113.55 minor resistance will bring retest on 114.54 and 114.73 key resistance first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.71; (P) 109.83; (R1) 110.00; More..

USD/JPY rises to as high as 110.80 so far and strong break of 110.28 resistance confirms resumption of whole rally from 104.45. Intraday bias is back on the upside for channel resistance (now at 111.21). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 112.40 resistance next. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 109.65 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.52; (P) 110.97; (R1) 111.29; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rise rebound from 108.81 is expected to continue to near term channel resistance (now at 113.06). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. Nonetheless, break of 108.81 will still extend the fall from 118.65 through 108.12 low before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.29; (P) 108.43; (R1) 108.65; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 107.81 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Upside of recovery should be limited by 109.02 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63 will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. Though, break of 109.02 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 111.92; (R1) 112.07; More…

Despite a brief retreat, outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and further rise is expected. Current rebound from 109.76 should target 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43 first. Break will target a test on 113.17 high. On the downside, break of 111.10, however, will argue that the rebound is completed. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 110.37 support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.84; (P) 156.61; (R1) 157.49; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 154.53 will turn bias to the downside for 151.86 support and possibly below, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. On the upside, break of 157.70 will resume the whole rise from 151.86 and target 160.20 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 160.20. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 147.77) holds, fall from 160.20 is seen as correcting the rise from 140.25 only. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.69; (P) 104.87; (R1) 105.12; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 102.58 short term bottom is at least correcting the down trend from 111.71. Further rally should target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.59 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.86; (P) 134.29; (R1) 134.70; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 135.13 continues. Further rally is expected as long as 132.03 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.13 will resume the choppy rebound from 129.62 towards 137.90 resistance next. However, break of 132.03 will argue that the rebound has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for 129.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 127.20 might be extending. But after all, down trend from 151.93 is expected to resume at a later stage. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

USD/JPY’s sharp fall last week suggests that choppy rise from 104.45 has completed at 109.72 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 first. Break will bring deeper fall to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46). On the upside, above 108.47 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.72 resistance holds. .

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.36; (P) 109.51; (R1) 109.73; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and consolidation from 109.72 could extend. As long as 108.27 support holds, outlook remains bullish for further rally. On the upside, break of 109.72 will resume the rise from 104.45 for 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. However, sustained break of 108.27 support will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 109.62; (R1) 109.88; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range below 110.19 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor with 108.55 support intact. On the upside, above 110.19 will resume the rise from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 111.71 resistance next. On the downside, break of 108.55 will turn bias to the downside for 107.47 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Though, as notable support was seen from 55 day EMA, rise from 102.58 is mildly in favor to extend higher. Decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.29; (P) 155.63; (R1) 156.02; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 160.20 are seen as a corrective pattern. On the upside, break of 156.78 will resume the rise from 151.86, as the second leg, to retest 160.20 high. On the downside, below 153.59 will target 151.86 and below as the third leg.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.93; (P) 130.43; (R1) 131.23; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with as fall from 137.90 lost momentum after hitting 129.62. Some consolidations could be seen first. But outlook stays bearish as long as 132.99 resistance holds. Break of 129.62 will target a test on 127.20 low. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 151.93 to 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 127.20 should have completed at 137.90 as a corrective move. The down trend from 151.93 (2022 high) is still in progress. Break of 127.20 will resume this down trend and target 61.8% projection of 151.93 to 127.20 from 137.90 at 122.61. This will now be the favored case as long as 137.90 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.04; (P) 109.37; (R1) 109.56; More…

Once again, USD/JPY drew support from 109.10 and recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first as range trading could continue. On the downside, break of 109.10 will argue that larger fall from 111.65 is resuming. Deeper decline should then be seen to 108.71 support first, and then 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, above 110.44 will turn bias back to the upside for 110.79, and then 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.82; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.53; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation with a temporary low in place at 111.82. But further decline is expected as long as 113.28 resistance holds. Fall from 114.54 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 104.62, after rejection by 114.73 resistance. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.12; (P) 103.84; (R1) 104.23; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Down trend from 111.71 has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 106.10 to 104.02 from 105.34 at 103.26. Break will target 161.8% projection at 101.97. On the upside, break of 105.34 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.98; (P) 115.34; (R1) 115.87; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.54; (P) 106.98; (R1) 107.34; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 108.04 resistance will suggest completion of correction from 111.71. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 109.38 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 106.35 will target 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58. Reactions from there could reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective or impulsive.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.