Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.92; (P) 114.20; (R1) 114.52; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the downside with break of 113.74 minor support. Fall from 114.96 would target 112.71 structural support next. Firm break there will bring deeper correction bask towards 111.65 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 114.96 is now needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral for more corrective trading first.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 111.65 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.81; (P) 149.06; (R1) 149.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.91; (P) 150.12; (R1) 150.43; More…

USD/JPY’s rally from 127.20 resumed by breaking through 150.15 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 151.93 high medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 149.84 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 147.28 support holds, even in case of deep retreat.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.54; (P) 128.21; (R1) 129.18; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 127.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline will remains in favor as long as 134.76 resistance holds. Break of 127.20 will resume the fall from 151.93 to 121.43 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, firm break of 134.76 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.59) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 134.76 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.09; (P) 145.52; (R1) 146.19; More…

USD/JPY is still staying below 146.40 and intraday bias remains neutral. Rebound from 140.25 could extend through 146.40, but upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.14; (P) 111.42; (R1) 111.95; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 112.13 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger rise from 104.69. Next target will be 114.54 key resistance. On the downside, break of 110.84 is needed to indicate completion of rise from 109.71. Otherwise, further rise remains in favor even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.48; (P) 111.78; (R1) 112.23; More…

With 111.50 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside. Current rise from 104.69 should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.53; (P) 128.99; (R1) 129.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first, and risk stays mildly on the downside with 131.34 resistance intact. Correction from there could extend lower. Below 127.51 will target 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86).

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.34; (P) 136.22; (R1) 137.24; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside and deeper fall could be seen to 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. Some support could be seen there to bring recovery. Break of 137.66 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 142.24 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 151.93. Fall from there is correcting larger up trend from 102.58. It’s too early to call for bearish trend reversal. But even as a corrective move, such decline should target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07, or further to 55 week EMA (now at 131.51).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.70; (P) 156.87; (R1) 157.06; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, above 157.78 will resume the rally from 151.86, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20, to 100% projection of 151.86 to 156.78 from 153.59 at 158.51. On the downside, below 155.83 will turn intraday bias to the downside for 153.59. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.21; (P) 115.48; (R1) 115.82; More…

Sideway trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58 to 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 114.40 will continue the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another fall to 113.46 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.64) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.71; (P) 134.09; (R1) 134.82; More…

USD/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current up trend should target 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29. On the downside, below 133.17 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.78; (P) 127.01; (R1) 127.35; More…

USD/JPY’s correction from 131.34 could still extend lower. But downside should be contained by 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 135.06; (P) 135.48; (R1) 136.31; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Further rally would be seen to retest 139.37 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern from 139.37. On the downside below 134.61 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 139.37 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 122.70) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.68; (P) 129.15; (R1) 129.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 131.34 extends. Another fall fall but ruled out and below 127.51 will target 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). On the upside, firm break of 131.34 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly last week and breached 111.58 support turned resistance. The development argues that corrective fall from 118.65 could be completed with three waves down to 108.12. But, we’d prefer to see sustained trading above 111.58 to confirm it. This will be the focus this week.

Initial bias in USD/JPY is neutral this week first. As long as 109.58 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Sustained trading above 111.58 support turned resistance will indicate that fall from 118.65 is merely a corrective move and has completed. Outlook will then be turned bullish for 115.49 resistance and above. However, break of 109.58 will argue that fall from 118.65 is still in progress and will turn bias to the downside for 108.12 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.52; (P) 105.84; (R1) 106.10; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen. Outlook stays bearish as long as 106.73 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 104.45 will resume recent down trend to 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. However, firm break of 106.73 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.43).

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.71; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.51; More..

USD/JPY is staying in range below 113.38 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 112.56 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 113.38 will resume the rebound from 113.37 to o retest 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.56 will likely extend the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 before completion.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.94; (P) 106.17; (R1) 106.57; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 107.28 is still in progress but after all, the pair is bounded in range of 105.24/107.67. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, Near term outlook remains bearish with 107.67 resistance intact. And deeper decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. On the upside, firm break of 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.14; (P) 104.36; (R1) 104.54; More...

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Larger decline from 111.71 is still in progress. Break of 103.65 should turn bias back to the downside for 103.17 low and below. This bearish case will remain favored as long as 105.67 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.