Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.18; (P) 136.08; (R1) 137.48; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside for retesting 133.61 support and then 133.07 medium term fibonacci level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 137.95 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.20; (R1) 110.62; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range above 109.76 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. At this point, we’d still expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.06; (P) 107.39; (R1) 107.57; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 108.16 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 106.79 support holds, further rise expected. On the upside, break of 108.16 will resume the rebound from 106.07 to 109.85 resistance next. Break will argue that larger rebound from 101.18 might be resuming to 112.22 key resistance. On the downside, below 106.79 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 106.07 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.05; (P) 106.16; (R1) 106.25; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case that pull back from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 109.85 resistance. On the downside, break of 105.10 will bring retest 104.18 support first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.70; (P) 113.98; (R1) 114.33; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 112.52 resumed by breaking 113.94 minor resistance and intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 115.51 high. Firm break there will resume whole up trend from 102.58 and target 118.65 key long term resistance. On the downside, below 113.21 minor support will now likely resume the correction from 115.51 through 112.52 support.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.34; (P) 106.62; (R1) 106.82; More...

USD/JPY’s break of 106.35 suggests resumption of whole decline from 111.71. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 111.71 to 106.91 from 109.38 at 104.58 next. At this point, downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD is still unconvincing. The structure of the fall from 111.71 doesn’t warrant that it’s an impulsive move resuming larger down trend. Reactions from 104.58 could finally reveal whether fall from 111.71 is corrective. On the upside, break of 107.49 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY’s corrective fall from 110.95 continued last week but started to lose downside momentum, as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further decline will remain in favor this week as long as 109.95 resistance holds. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 109.95 will bring retest of 110.95 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.92) will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.22; (P) 113.52; (R1) 113.75; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 will argue that it’s already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.59; (P) 149.83; (R1) 150.33; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral as consolidation from 151.69 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 148.79 support holds. Firm break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend. However, decisive break of 148.79 will indicate rejection by 151.93 key resistance, and bring deeper fall through 147.28 support.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.37; (P) 111.65; (R1) 112.09; More….

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.30 so far as the rebound from 108.12 resumes. The current development indicates that corrective decline from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.12. Further rally would be seen to 115.49 resistance first. Break will target 118.65 high. On the downside, break of 110.86 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 115.49 resistance will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.82; (P) 113.77; (R1) 114.47; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in range above 112.95 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 112.95 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and further rise is expected. On the upside, sustained break of 114.49 key resistance will pave the way to retest 118.65 high. However, break of 112.95 support will now indicate rejection from 114.49 and turn bias to the downside for 111.64 support and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming.

USD/JPY gyrated higher last week but stayed in range below 150.15 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Another falling leg could be seen, but in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. On resumption, next target would be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.68; (P) 154.33; (R1) 155.56; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen above 151.93 temporary low. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 155.36 support turned resistance holds. Decisive break of 151.89 resistance turned support will argue that large scale correction is underway to 148.66 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 155.36 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, considering the depth and momentum of the current decline, 161.94 should be a medium term top already. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 127.20 (2023 low) at least. Break of 151.89 will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 161.94 at 148.66. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 157.25) holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.17; (P) 110.68; (R1) 111.03; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 110.32 temporary low. Outlook stays bearish as long as 113.38 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 110.32 will extend the whole decline from 114.73 to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. We’d look for bottoming signal again below 110.14.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

USD/JPY surged to as high as 110.01 last week but failed to break through 110.28 resistance and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. At this point, further rise is expected as long 108.30 support holds. Above 108.30 will target 110.28 first. Break will resume larger rebound from 104.45 and target medium term channel resistance at 111.23.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the bearish outlook yet in spite of the rebound from 104.45. The pair is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and the down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.88; (P) 110.10; (R1) 110.51; More…

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.02; (R1) 110.19; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 110.21 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 109.24 minor support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 110.21 will extend whole rise from 104.45 to 100% projection of 106.48 to 109.72 from 107.65 at 110.89 next.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). There is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Hence, rise from 104.45 is seen as a correction and down trend could still extend through 104.45 low. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will be an important sign of bullish reversal and target 114.54 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9119; (P) 0.9149; (R1) 0.9181; More…

USD/CHF is still extending the corrective pattern from 0.9058 low. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9474 fibonacci level. On the downside, firm break of 0.9058 will resume larger down trend from 1.1046.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) should still be in progress with 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 intact. Prior rejection by 55 week EMA was a medium term bearish sign. Break of 0.9058 will resume such decline towards 0.8756 support (2021 low). But overall, this fall is still as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). So, downside should be contained by 0.8756 to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.86; (P) 108.21; (R1) 108.43; More…

USD/JPY’s decline from 110.95 resumed after brief recovery and focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75. We’d still look for strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 108.99 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 110.95 high. However, sustained break of 107.75 will bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 105.77.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.96) will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.21; (P) 129.31; (R1) 130.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, on the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.75) and possibly above.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.