Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.79; (P) 107.34; (R1) 107.68; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside at this point. With 107.08 support taken out, further fall should be seen to 105.98 next. At this point, the pattern from 111.71 is seen as a correction. We’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, above 107.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.97; (P) 132.65; (R1) 133.77; More…

USD/JPY’s rise from 127.20 short term bottom is in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64, even as a correction to the decline from 151.39. On the downside, break of 131.49 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.47) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.26; (P) 142.07; (R1) 142.59; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is mildly on the downside. Fall from 143.88 could be the third leg of the pattern from 145.06. Deeper fall would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 140.50). On the upside, though, above 143.88 will resume the rise from 137.22 to retest 145.06 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.13; (R1) 107.48; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 105.98. Further rise is expected as long as 105.98 support holds. On the upside, break of 107.76 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.38 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.21; (R1) 115.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 115.68 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 114.46 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 114.46 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 113.46 support instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.91; (P) 112.20; (R1) 112.53; More..

USD/JPY’s fall from 114.54 resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Such decline is seen as correcting whole rise from 104.62. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, though, above 112.52 minor resistance will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.13; (P) 129.35; (R1) 131.14; More…

USD/JPY is staying in range above 127.20 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook remains bearish with 133.61 support turned resistance intact. Break of 127.20 will resume larger fall from 151.93 to 121.43 fibonacci level next. On the upside, though, firm break of 133.61 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 week EMA (now at 131.59) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 134.76 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.76; (P) 108.20; (R1) 108.55; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 108.47 minor resistance intact. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 104.45 to 109.72 at 107.70 will bring deeper fall to 106.48 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 106.46). On the upside, above 108.47 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying in long term falling channel that started at 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Recovery from 104.45 also failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 109.02). Overall outlook remains bearish and fall from 118.65 is in favor to extend through 104.45 low. This will now stay as the favored case as long as 109.72 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.02; (P) 147.21; (R1) 147.86; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 151.93 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 130.38 to 151.93 at 143.69 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 149.69 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound back towards 151.93 high. But upside should be limited there to continue the corrective pattern.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). 147.68 (1998 high) was already met and there is no clearly sign of topping yet. In any case, break of 140.33 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, further rise is in favor to next target at 160.16 (1990 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.35; (P) 148.91; (R1) 149.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 140.25 is in progress for retesting 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, below 147.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 145.88 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 151.89 is seen as a correction to the rally from 127.20, which might have completed at 140.25 already. Firm break of 151.89/93 resistance zone will confirm up trend resumption, and next target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. This will now remain the favored case as long as 140.25 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.34; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.67; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook remains unchanged. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, risks remain on the downside as long as 112.40 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 110.84 support will add to the case of bearish reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 112.40 resistance will resume the rise from 104.69 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.80; (P) 111.02; (R1) 111.46; More…

USD/JPY is still staying in tight range above 110.58 temporary low. Intraday bias stays neutral. Also, with 111.53 minor resistance intact, the corrective fall from 113.17 could extend lower. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 111.53 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 113.17 high first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.80; (P) 110.99; (R1) 111.28; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. The corrective fall from 113.17 is possibly not completed yet. Break of 110.58 will bring deeper decline. Nonetheless, in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 112.14 will target a test on 113.17 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.24; (P) 149.97; (R1) 150.74; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, decisive break of 150.87 will resume whole rally from 140.25 to retest 151.89/93 key resistance zone. On the other hand, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 149.20 will confirm short term topping at 150.87. Deeper fall would be seen to channel support (now at 148.33), even as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, rise from 140.25 is seen as resuming the trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Decisive break of 151.89/.93 resistance zone will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.50. However, break of 148.79 resistance turned support will delay this bullish case, and extend the corrective pattern from 151.89 with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.16; (R1) 107.74; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 106.57 temporary low might extend. But further decline will remain in favor as long as 108.24 minor resistance holds. On the downside, break of 106.57 will target 105.98 support and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 108.24 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.82; (P) 105.00; (R1) 105.16; More..

With 104.59 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside, Current rise from 102.58 short term bottom is at least correcting the down trend from 111.71. Further rally should target 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, break of 104.59 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first, and bring consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016), and there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Though, sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 105.97) will be the first sign of reversal and turn focus to channel resistance (now at 110.31).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.82; (P) 113.08; (R1) 113.44; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 113.94 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 115.51 high instead. On the downside, sustained break of 112.71 structural support will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.35; (P) 115.52; (R1) 115.71; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound from 113.46 resumed by breaking 115.68 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the for 116.34 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance. On the downside, though, break of 115.31 minor support will extend the corrective pattern from 116.34 with another falling leg, and turn bias back to the downside for 114.14 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.79; (P) 110.00; (R1) 110.21; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 109.54 suggests that fall from 110.89 has resumed. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 111.39. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 108.10 support and possibly below. But, we’d expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.89 will extend the rise from 108.10 towards 111.39 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.81; (P) 149.06; (R1) 149.39; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, below 147.28 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back. But there is no confirmation of bearish trend reversal before firm break of 144.43 support. Another rally remains mildly in favor through 150.15 to retest 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.