Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.60; (P) 108.73; (R1) 108.90; More…

No change in USD/JPY’s outlook for now. Intraday bias remains mildly on the upside with 108.15 minor support intact. Further rise should be seen to 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.15 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.48 support holds.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.34; (P) 110.49; (R1) 110.65; More…

Further rise could still be seen in USD/JPY. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 109.66 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 108.49. Break will confirm completion of rebound from 104.69. However, sustained trading above 110.77 will dampen our bearish view and target a test on 114.54 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it’s a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.41) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.80; (P) 105.25; (R1) 105.53; More...

Further fall is expected in USD/JPY with 105.68 minor resistance intact, despite loss of downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Current fall is part of the decline from 111.71 and should target 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12 next. On the upside, above 105.68 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 106.63 support turned resistance to bring another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

USD/JPY stayed in sideway trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.83; (R1) 113.34; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment as rebound from 111.37 is in progress. Corrective fall from 114.54 should have completed at 111.37 already. Rise from there should extend to 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, break of 112.56 will possibly extend the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 before completion.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 fibonacci level will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 154.77 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 153.58 support first.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Firm there will target 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09., Outlook will remain bullish as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.29; (P) 115.58; (R1) 115.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. On the downside, below 115.00 will extend the fall from 116.33, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 116.34. Deeper fall would be seen to 114.14 support, and then 113.46. On the upside, firm break of 116.34 will resume larger up trend from 102.58. Next target is 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.21) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.43; (P) 108.56; (R1) 108.68; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation continues. With 108.27 support intact, further rally is still expected. On the upside, above 109.20 minor resistance will bring retest of 109.72 first. However, firm break of 108.27 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 106.48 support.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.15; (P) 113.47; (R1) 113.93; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first and some consolidations could be seen below 113.77 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Break of 113.77 will resume larger rise from 102.58 to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 118.18 next.

In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 108.71 support hold, even in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.28; (P) 116.73; (R1) 117.44; More…

USD/JPY’s rebound continues and focus is back on 118.65 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 98.97. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 125.85 high. We’d be cautious on topping at 125.85 on first attempt. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.56; (P) 112.82; (R1) 113.13; More…..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside as rebound from 112.02 is on course to 113.74 resistance. Break will resume the rise fro 110.83 and target key resistance at 114.73 next. On the downside, below 112.83 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But we’ll continue to expect further rally ahead as long as 112.02 support holds.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.89; (P) 115.37; (R1) 115.69; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 116.34 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained well well above 114.26 resistance turned support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 61.8% projection of 109.11 to 115.51 from 112.52 at 116.47 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.90, which is close to 118.65 long term resistance.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 112.52 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

USD/JPY extended the sideway trading from 127.20 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 131.56 resistance should confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 133.32) and possibly above. On the downside, break of 127.20 will resume the whole decline from 151.93 and target 121.43 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, the prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong support could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 to bring rebound. But break of 131.56 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming first. Otherwise further fall will remain in favor.

In the long term picture, 151.93 looks increasingly likely a major top. But it’s too early to call for long term bearish reversal at this point. Rebound from around 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for price action from 151.93 to be just a corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.84; (P) 110.09; (R1) 110.49; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for 110.58 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that correction from 111.65 has completed with three waves down to 108.71. Stronger rise would then be seen to retest 111.65 high. On the downside, though, below 109.69 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 104.27 last week and the development argues that down trend from 111.71 might be resuming. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 104.18 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 109.85 to 104.18 from 106.94 at 103.43 next. On the upside, above 104.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first, for some consolidations, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.91; (P) 110.13; (R1) 110.54; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and risk stays on the downside with 110.81 resistance intact. Choppy rise from 107.47 could have completed after rejection by 110.95 resistance. Further fall is in favor to 109.17 support. Break there will confirm and target 107.47 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. On the upside, decisive break of 111.71/112.22 resistance will suggest medium term bullish reversal. Rise from 101.18 could then target 118.65 resistance (Dec 2016) and above. However, sustained break of 107.47 support would revive some medium term bearishness, and open up deep fall to 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 105.77 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.41; (P) 105.61; (R1) 105.93; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 105.80 will resume the rebound from 104.00 to 106.94 resistance next. on the downside, break of 104.92 will suggest completion of rebound from 104.00. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 resistance should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.79; (P) 109.56; (R1) 110.34; More…

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first. With 110.80 resistance intact, further decline is still expected to 108.12 low first. Break will extend the whole corrective fall from 118.65 to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We will look for bottoming sign there. However, break of 110.80 should indicate completion of fall from 114.36. In that case, intraday bias will turned back to the upside for 111.70. Break will target 114.36 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.02; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.88; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 151.92 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 150.25 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. However, firm break of 150.25 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.23; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY as consolidation from 108.12 temporary low extends. With 110.10 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Rise from 98.97 is finished at 118.65 and fall from there would extend. On the downside, break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it’s not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.