Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.37; (P) 107.57; (R1) 107.81; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. We’re still favoring the case that corrective fall from 111.71 has already completed at 105.98. Further rise should be seen and break of 108.08 will turn bias to the upside for 109.38 resistance. However, break of 106.74 support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 105.98 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.16; (P) 109.41; (R1) 109.62; More…

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.77 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor for now. Break of 109.77 will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support and below instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. We’d monitor the structure of the fall from 110.95, to assess whether it’s just correction to rise from 102.58 to 110.95, or a leg of a range pattern between 101.18 and 111.71, or starting another leg of the long term down trend..

USD/JPY’s up trend resumed last week by breaking through 151.93 resistance. But it retreated after hitting 153.37. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.80 support holds. Above 153.37 will target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 140.25 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 127.20 (2023 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 146.47 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, as long as 127.20 support holds (2023 low), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 152.87 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 172.08. (This is a pure technical view without considering Japan’s intervention.)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.26; (P) 144.49; (R1) 144.91; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is now on the downside with break of 55 4H EMA (now at 143.90). Correction from 145.06 is extending lower, but near term outlook will remain mildly bullish as long as 140.90 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 145.06 will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 127.20 to 137.90 from 129.62 at 146.93.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is currently seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally is expected as long as 138.75 support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside. Break of 138.75 will indicate the the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.66; (P) 149.81; (R1) 149.96; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment as range trading continues. On the downside, below 148.94 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another down leg towards 147.28. On the upside, firm break of 150.15 will resume larger up trend to test 151.93 high.

In the bigger picture, while rise from 127.20 is strong, it could still be seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will be the first sign that the third leg of the pattern has started. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.94; (P) 113.24; (R1) 113.58; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 111.58 low. Current development argues that consolidation from 111.58 has completed with three waves to 115.49. And larger decline from 118.65 is resuming. Break of 111.58 will target 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12. That coincides with 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. We’d tentatively expect strong support from there to bring rebound. But firm break there will target 100% projection at 108.42. On the upside, outlook will stays bearish as long as 115.49 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.27; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.75; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 111.18 support suggests that rebound from 109.71 has completed at 111.82. Also, the consolidation pattern from 112.13 is starting the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 109.71 and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 to bring rebound. On the upside, decisive break of 112.13 will resume whole rally from 104.69 and target 114.54 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it’s staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.77; (P) 110.03; (R1) 110.85; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Further rise is still mildly in favor with 106.75 minor support intact. Decisive break of 112.22 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point, whole decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) continues to display a corrective look, with well channeling. There is no clear sign of completion yet. Break of 101.18 will target 98.97 (2016 low). Meanwhile, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the decline and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.94; (P) 111.20; (R1) 111.41; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 112.13 might extend. As long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is still in favor to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.10; (P) 111.28; (R1) 111.44; More…

Breach of 110.85 minor support argues that USD/JPY’s recovery from 110.23 is finished at 112.12, after failing to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside to 110.23 first. Break will extend the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 low and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we’ll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It’s uncertain whether it’s completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.29; (R1) 109.87; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery. Some consolidation would be seen first but further decline remains in favor as long as 110.58 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 108.71 will resume the decline from 111.65 to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18. Nevertheless, firm break of 110.58 will argue that that corrective fall has completed and bring retest of 111.65.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. Firm break of 107.47 will argue that pattern from 101.18 has started another falling leg already. Deeper decline could be seen back to 101.18/102.58 support zone. For now, outlook won’t turn bullish as long as 111.71 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.82; (P) 135.18; (R1) 135.85; More…

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 136.70 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another dip cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained above 131.48 support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81 will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.93; (P) 108.28; (R1) 108.75; More..

USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally from 102.58 should target long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 107.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.58; (P) 133.57; (R1) 134.84; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. Correction from 139.37 could still extend through 130.38. But downside should be contained above 126.35 support, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 134.58 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rally to retest 139.37 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.84; (P) 115.21; (R1) 115.50; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 115.68 temporary top. Further rally is expected with 114.46 minor support intact. On the upside, break of 115.68 will target 116.34 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend for 118.65 long term resistance next. On the downside, break of 114.46 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 113.46 support instead.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 120.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 week EMA (now at 111.07) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.41; (P) 151.61; (R1) 151.75; More…

USD/JPY is staying in tight range below 151.96 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 151.02 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.43). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.87; (P) 109.99; (R1) 110.07; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the downside, break of 109.10 will target 108.71 support first. Firm break there will resume the decline from 111.65 and target 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 111.65 at 108.18 next. On the upside, break of 110.79 will resume the rebound from 108.71 to retest 111.65 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.28; (P) 110.68; (R1) 110.99; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 110.25 minor support will suggest rejection by 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. And in that case, the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, firm break of 111.23 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it’s struggle to get rid of 55 day EMA completely. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 109.82; (R1) 111.74; More..

USD//JPY reaches as high as 111.36 so far as rise from 101.18 extends. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 112.22 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 106.75 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 101.18 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) is still in progress. It’s seen as part of a larger consolidative pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). Such decline could could extend through 98.97 (2016 low). For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 112.22 resistance holds, even in case of rebound. However, break of 112.22 will be a strong sign on medium term bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.12; (P) 145.85; (R1) 146.89; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Break of 144.80 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58, after rejection by 55 4H EMA. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. Overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 151.89 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Deeper decline would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. This will now remain the favored as long as 147.14 support turned resistance holds.